摘要
准确预测未来的经济趋势对调整当前经济政策非常重要。由于数据样本量较小,不规则且不稳定,因此难以建立准确的预测模型对北京的第三产业进行预测。为此,利用滚动灰度模型进行该小样本数据的预测。结果表明,滚动灰度模型优于其他模型,能够对短期波动的小样本经济数据序列进行合理预测。
It is important to accurately predict the future economic trends,which can guide policy makers to adjust their current economic policies.Because the data sample size is small,irregular and unstable,it is difficult to establish an accurate prediction model to forecast the tertiary industry in Beijing.For this purpose,the rolling gray model is utilized to accomplish such prediction.The results show that the rolling gray model outperforms other models,and can reasonably predict the short-term and fluctuating small sample economic dataset.
作者
杨洋
张玉浩
刘礼
YANG Yang;ZHANG Yu-hao;LIU Li(Logistics Management Center,Huadong Branch,State Grid Corporation of China,Shanghai 200120,China;School of Big Data,Chongqing University,Chongqing 401331,China)
出处
《科技和产业》
2021年第6期165-168,共4页
Science Technology and Industry
基金
科技部国家重点研发计划(2017YFB1401702)。
关键词
滚动灰度模型
北京第三产业
经济预测
小样本数据
rolling gray model
tertiary industry in Beijing
economic forecast
small sample dataset
