摘要
低生育率问题是影响东北地区人口均衡发展、地方经济振兴和边疆稳定的重大战略问题。早在上世纪80年代东北地区总和生育率就已经低于更替水平。2000年总和生育率低于1.0,成为超低生育率地区。东北地区出生率持续低迷,2019年东北地区出生率比全国低40%以上,出生人口数量进入持续减少阶段。与2000年相比,2019年出生规模降低了37.5%,降低幅度最大的黑龙江省达到了40.4%。从低生育陷阱理论机制分析发现,未来东北地区提升生育水平面临很多困境,育龄妇女人数减少且年龄老化,婚育结构变化,叠加人口迁移流动,人口增长负惯性持续强化。从取消生育限制、提高生育意愿、减少妇女流出和提高已婚育龄妇女数量等方面入手,可以减缓出生人口持续减少的状况,遏制低生育率陷阱的继续加深。
The problem of low fertility is a major strategic issue affecting the balanced development of population,local economic revitalization and border stability in Northeast China.Based on the analysis of fertility situation in Northeast China,this paper finds the total fertility rate(TFR)in Northeast China was lower than the replacement level as early as the 1980s.In 2000,the TFR was lower than 1.0,which means Northeast China get into the ultra-low fertility level.The birth rate of Northeast China continues to be low in 2019,the birth rate of Northeast China is more than 40%,which is lower than that of the whole country,and the number of births will continue to decrease in future.Compared with 2000,the number of births in 2019 decreased by 37.5%,and the largest decrease in Heilongjiang Province reached 40.4%.The decline in fertility rate is the result of the decrease of the second and more children.Under the frame work of the low fertility trap theory,there will be many difficulties to improve the fertility level in Northeast China in the future.The number of women in childbearing age will decrease and childbearing age women will get much older,the marriage and childbearing structure will change,the population migration will be superimposed,and the negative momentum of population growth will continue to strengthen.The situation that the fertility level in Northeast China continues to be low and is still declining,it is suggested that we should start with abolishing the birth restriction,improving the fertility will,reducing the outflow of women and increasing the number of married women of childbearing age,so as to slow down the continuous decline of the birth population and avoid the deepening of the low fertility trap.
出处
《北方论丛》
2021年第4期65-75,167,共12页
The Northern Forum
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“人口统计调查的国际前沿理论及其在中国的应用”(16ZDA090)
国家社科基金重大项目“中国社会质量基础数据库建设”(16ZDA079)
中国社会科学院创新工程重大科研规划项目“未来十五年中国社会面临的重大风险研究”(2019ZDGH005)。
