摘要
随着交通工具智能化与无人化的发展,交通系统的自动化管理成为一个必然趋势.而对于交通自动化管理系统,准确评估碰撞风险从而保证交通安全是一项关键技术.本文提出了一种基于碰撞概率计算的碰撞风险评估方法,以碰撞概率作为安全评估指标,帮助智能交通系统对碰撞风险进行精确控制.对具有不确定性的飞行轨迹之间的碰撞概率进行计算主要分为三个步骤,即数据预处理、建模与离散化、概率计算.首先,对飞行轨迹数据转换到相同的坐标系中,并且进行时间一致性处理.然后,根据插值间隔时间将飞行轨迹离散化成多个小段,在每个轨迹点上建立不确定性包围盒,并按照选定的安全距离分解成多个单元体.最后,使用离散化的包围盒模型计算瞬间状态碰撞概率作为对应离散时间段的碰撞概率,并根据条件概率公式进一步得到整个飞行时段的碰撞概率.理论分析与数值仿真结果表明该算法对插值间隔时间具有收敛性,并对安全距离的意义及其对碰撞概率计算结果的影响进行了分析.本文所提出的碰撞风险评估方法具有非常广阔的应用场景,只要选取合适的安全距离,该方法可以应用于各种对象类型的交通管理决策支持工具中,如航空宇航飞行器、地面无人驾驶车辆和自主式水下航行器,以实现对碰撞风险的精确控制.
With the development of intelligent and unmanned transportation,the automation management of the transportation system has become an inevitable trend,and collision risk is of paramount consideration in traffic management automation.In this paper,we propose a collision risk evaluation method,which takes collision probability as a safety-evaluation index,and hence,can control collision risks.We developed the proposed methodology in a simple form that consists of three steps for data preprocessing,spatiotemporal discretization,and probability calculation.First,we perform coordinate unification and time-alignment for the given trajectory data.Then,we divide the trajectory into many small segments according to the interpolation interval and divide the uncertainty cuboid into many grid cells according to the given safe distance.Finally,we calculate the instantaneous collision probability according to the probability distribution model,and then,we obtain the collision probability of the entire flight period.Simulation results reveal that the method has convergence for the interpolation interval.We also discuss the effects of safe distance on the calculation result of collision probability.The proposed method has a wide range of application scenarios,which can be applied to traffic management decision support tools of various types of vehicles as long as an appropriate safe distance is adopted.
作者
陈锦涌
周锐
张宇航
熊伟
CHEN JinYong;ZHOU Rui;ZHANG YuHang;XIONG Wei(School of Automation Science and Electrical Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Beijing Institute of Space Long March Vehicle,Beijing 100076,China;China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology Systems Engineering Division,Beijing 100076,China)
出处
《中国科学:技术科学》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期469-479,共11页
Scientia Sinica(Technologica)
基金
国家自然科学基金(批准号:61773031)资助项目。
关键词
碰撞风险
安全性评估
不确定性飞行轨迹
collision risk
safety evaluation
flight trajectory with uncertainty