摘要
利用趋势性检验和R/S分析方法探讨了影响广西的极端台风灾害的风险演变趋势。结果表明:1961—2018年影响广西的台风频数呈显著下降趋势,但强致灾台风频数在近年来显著上升,未来可能持续增加;台风影响日期服从正态分布,极早与极晚事件的发生率相关性较强,变化趋势较为一致,均随着年代变化呈下降趋势,在未来可能继续下降;影响广西的台风最大风速≥39 m/s被定义为极端大风事件,其发生概率整体呈增加趋势,并在未来可能持续增加;影响广西的台风累计最大雨量服从伽马分布,降水量≥388 mm被定义为极端大雨事件,在58 a间其发生概率持续增长,在未来可能继续维持增长趋势。
The risk threshold of each variable of extreme typhoon disaster that affects Guangxi is determined by probability distribution,and the evolution trend of extreme typhoon risk is discussed using trend test and R/S analysis method.The results show that the typhoon frequency reveals a decreasing trend from year 1961 to 2018.However,the frequency of strong typhoon that causes sever disasters is increasing,which may continue to increase in the future.The impact date of typhoon accords with a normal distribution,and the incidence of extremely early event and extremely late event are strongly correlated.The variation trend is relatively consistent,and both of them show a downward trend with the change of age,which may continue to decline in the future.;The frequency of extreme wind event with the maximum wind speed greater than or equal to 39 m/s is overall increasing,which may continue to increase in the future.The cumulative maximum precipitation caused by typhoon that affects Guangxi shows a gamma distribution.The probability of extreme precipitation with the maximum value greater than or equal to 388 mm is constantly increasing between year 1961 and 2018,which may continue to increase in the future.
作者
卢耀健
刘合香
李广桃
LU Yao-jian;LIU He-xiang;LI Guang-tao(Nanning Normal University School of Mathematics and Statistics,Nanning 53029 China;Guangxi Beibu Gulf Marine Disaster Key Laboratory,Qinzhou 535000 China)
出处
《海洋预报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期31-41,共11页
Marine Forecasts
基金
国家自然科学基金(41665006)
广西研究生教育创新计划资助项目(YCSW2020195)。
