摘要
掌握径流系数变化规律对于研究流域水循环问题及配置水资源等有重要意义。基于西江上游流域1967~2014年的降雨径流数据,采用滑动平均、M-K检验、小波分析、R/S分析等方法分析了西江上游流域近50年径流系数的变化特征。采用Spearman相关分析法分析了降水因子与下垫面各结构因子对径流系数变化的影响。结果表明,流域径流系数总体呈下降趋势,并在1980年代后出现明显突变;流域降水和下垫面结构改变对径流系数均有影响,其中降水因子的影响更为显著。研究结果对提高流域径流预报精度有积极意义。
It is of great significance to master the variation law of runoff coefficient for the study of water cycle and allocation of water resources.Based on the rainfall runoff data from 1967 to 2014 in the upper reaches of Xijiang River Basin,the variation characteristics of runoff coefficient in recent 50 years were analyzed by using moving average method,M-k Test,wavelet analysis and R/S analysis.The Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the impact of precipitation factors and underlying surface structure factors on runoff coefficient.The results show that the runoff coefficient of the basin generally presents a downward trend,and there is a significant mutation after the 1980 s;The change of precipitation and underlying surface structure have an impact on the runoff coefficient,and the impact of precipitation factor is more significant.The results are of positive significance to improve the accuracy of runoff forecasting.
作者
张钰荃
高成
陈旭东
杨博
鲍庆煜
姚航斌
ZHANG Yu-quan;GAO Cheng;CHEN Xu-dong;YANG Bo;BAO Qing-yu;YAO Hang-bin(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;China Design Group Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210014,China;Hohai University Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210098,China;Nanjing Branch of Jiangsu Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing 210029,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2021年第5期37-41,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
江苏省水利科技项目(2017006,2018016)。
关键词
径流系数
趋势分析
变化规律
影响因素
西江上游流域
runoff coefficient
trend analysis
change rule
influencing factor
upper reaches of Xijiang River Basin
