摘要
研究引起径流变化的主要驱动因子对流域水文水资源与生态相关研究具有重要的指导意义。以典型草原型流域-锡林河流域1970-2014年径流及气象数据为基础,采用Mann-Kendall法、弹性系数法定量分析了气候变化及人类活动对径流变化的贡献程度。结果表明:近45a来锡林河流域年径流量呈显著下降的趋势,在1979、1986和1998年发生突变。1980-1986年人类活动对径流减少的贡献率为46.57%;1987-1998年人类活动对径流增加的贡献率高达91.46%,气候变化的贡献率仅为8.54%;1999-2014年人类活动对径流减少的贡献率为66.16%。整体而言,人类活动是锡林河流域径流变化的主要驱动力。
Analysis of the main driven factors which caused runoff variations can provide significant information for water resources and ecology researches. Based on the runoff and meteorological data with series from 1970 to2014 of a typical steppe watershed Xilin River,Mann-Kendall and Elastic Coefficient Method were used to quantify the contribution of climate change and human activities on runoff changes. The results indicated that the annual runoff present a significant decrease trend during recent 45 years,and occurred mutations in the years of1979,1986 and 1998,respectively. For the period of 1980 to 1986,the contribution rate of human activities accounted for 46. 57%,which reached 91. 46% for the period of 1987 to 1998 and climate change just had a percent of 8. 54%. For the period of 1999 to 2014,66. 16% of the runoff variation was caused by human activities.In brief,human activity is the main driven factors which induced runoff changes.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第10期125-130,共6页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
国家国际科技合作专项(2015DFA00530)
国家自然科学基金(51369016)
内蒙古农业大学优秀青年科学基金(2014XYQ-11)
内蒙古自然科学基金(2015MS0566)
教育部创新团队发展计划(IRT13069)
科技部重点领域创新团队(2015RA4013)资助
