摘要
鉴于开展变化环境下流域的水文响应研究是实现流域良好管理的前提,以淮河源头大坡岭流域为例,通过构建SWAT模型,模拟并分析了流域不同土地利用类型的土壤水分值和地下水补给量,研究了在多种极端土地利用情景下流域径流的变化情况,并使用经过统计降尺度后的未来气象数据,结合未来土地利用预测数据,预估径流的变化情况。结果表明,SWAT模型适合在大坡岭流域进行径流模拟;大坡岭流域耕地的土壤水分值最高,林地最低;林地的地下水补给量最多,耕地最少;耕地对流域径流增加的贡献最多,林地最少;未来气候情景下,2021~2040年大坡岭流域径流量将会增加,2024年增加明显,应加强汛期防汛工作。
Carrying out hydrological response studies of watersheds under changing environment is a prerequisite for good watershed management.This article took the Dapoling Basin at the source of the Huaihe River Basin as the research area.By constructing a SWAT model,it simulated and analyzed the soil moisture value and groundwater recharge of different land use types in the basin.And then the changes of runoff were studied under various extreme land use scenarios.Used future weather data after statistical downscaling,combined with the future land use prediction data,the future runoff change of the basin was estimated.The results show that the SWAT model is suitable for runoff simulation in the Dapoling Basin.The soil moisture value of cultivated land is the highest in the Dapoling Basin,and that of forest land is the lowest.Forest land has the most groundwater recharge and the least cultivated land.Cultivated land contributes the most to the increase of runoff and forest land the least.Under the future climate scenario,the runoff in Dapoling Basin will increase from 2021 to 2040,and increase significantly in 2024,so the flood control work should be strengthened.
作者
何孟铮
李宏伟
刘杨
常骑
HE Meng-zheng;LI Hong-wei;LIU Yang;CHANG Qi(School of Water Conservancy Science and Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450052,China;School of Geoscience and Technology,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450052,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2021年第5期17-20,53,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41901078)。
