摘要
气候变化及土地利用情景下流域径流模拟和预测对流域水量平衡研究和水资源规划管理具有重要意义。以张家口市清水河流域为例,采用全球气候模式GFDL-ESM2M和CA-Markov模型分析和预测清水河流域气象数据和土地利用,构建流域SWAT水文模型,量化气候变化和土地利用共同影响下流域2025年水量平衡要素变化。结果表明,在三种温室气体排放情景下,2025年清水河流域降雨量大幅增加,RCP2.6情景下的最高温度和平均温度相比2015年下降,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下最高温度和平均温度均上升,三种情景下最低温度均有下降;2015~2025年间,耕地、林地、草地、水域、建设用地五种土地利用类型分别变化了-6.24%、-0.86%、6.32%、0.20%、0.59%;相比2014~2015年,流域2025年水量平衡分配发生改变,月径流量峰值出现在7月或9月,三种排放情景下年平均径流量分别为4.40、5.84、9.94 m^(3)/s。
Simulation and prediction of runoff under climate change and land use scenarios are of great significance for the study of water balance and water resources planning and management.Taking the Qingshui River Basin in Zhangjiakou City as the research area,the global climate model GFDL-ESM2M and CA-Markov model were used to analyze and predict the meteorological data and land use in the Qingshui River basin,and the SWAT hydrological model was constructed to quantify the changes of water balance factors in the basin in 2025 under the joint influence of climate change and land use.The results show that under the three GHG emission scenarios,the rainfall in Qingshui River Basin increased significantly in 2025,the maximum temperature and average temperature under the RCP2.6 emission scenario decreased compared with 2015;The maximum temperature and average temperature under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenario increased,and the minimum temperature under the three scenarios decreased.From 2015 to 2025,arable land,woodland,grassland,water area and construction land changed by-6.24%,-0.86%,6.32%,0.20%and 0.59%,respectively.Compared with 2014-2015,the water balance distribution of the watershed changed in 2025,and the peak monthly runoff occurred from July to September.The average annual runoff under the three discharge scenarios were 4.40 m^(3)/s,5.84 m^(3)/s and 9.94 m^(3)/s,respectively.
作者
周凡
李涵
刘瑞芬
ZHOU Fan;LI Han;LIU Rui-fen(Hubei Key Laboratory of River and Lake Ecological Restoration and Algae Utilization,Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan 430068,China;School of Civil Engingeering,Architecture&Environment,Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan 430068,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2023年第9期11-14,102,共5页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(51909081)
国家科技重大专项水专项项目(2017ZX07101003-08)。
