摘要
本文采用随机场-贝叶斯方法校准边坡工程的岩土参数,进行考虑渗流的非饱和土边坡稳定性分析。将关键岩土参数视为空间统计相关的随机场变量,系统地融合了岩土参数的先验分布,钻孔勘察数据和长期监测数据,校准岩土参数的后验分布。将该方法应用于三峡库区石榴树包滑坡的稳定性分析,结果表明,校准后的岩土参数后验均值均小于原始钻孔勘察数据的统计值。边坡在夏季枯水位、强降雨条件下的稳定性满足可靠度要求,无需采取额外的加固措施来防止新的地质灾害发生,但建议监测系统应长期保持工作状态。
In this paper,the random field-Bayesian method is used to calibrate geotechnical parameters,which will contribute to the stability analysis of unsaturated soil slope considering seepage.Key geotechnical parameters are defined as Spatial Random Fields(SRFs),and the prior distribution,borehole logging data and long-term monitoring data are systematically integrated to calibrate posterior distribution of the geotechnical parameters.The approach is applied to the stability analysis of Shiliushubao landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region.The results show that all the posterior mean values are less than the statistical values of the original borehole testing data.The slope stability will reach the reliability requirements when the slope suffers an unprecedented heavy rainfall and low reservoir water level in the upcoming summer.It is unnecessary to take additional reinforcement measures to prevent new landslide disasters.Meanwhile it is recommended that the monitoring system should continue to provide reliable long-term measurements.
作者
宗振邦
王长虹
孙德安
ZONG Zhenbang;WANG Changhong;SUN De’an(Department of Civil Engineering,School of Mechanics and Engineering Science,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期127-137,共11页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
上海高校特聘教授(东方学者)岗位计划(TP2018042)
上海市浦江人才计划(18PJ1403900)
同济大学岩土及地下工程教育部重点实验室开放研究基金项目(KLE-TJGE-B1706)。
关键词
岩土参数
多元随机场
贝叶斯方法
非饱和土边坡
可靠度分析
geotechnical parameter
multivariate random field
Bayesian method
unsaturated soil slope
reliability analysis
