摘要
以我国能源消费结构的历史数据为对象,提出了一种应用二阶弱化算子的GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫链模型相结合的组合模型来对我国未来的能源消费结构与碳排放进行预测的方法。文章通过对能源消费结构中各类能源历史数据的分析和碳排放转换,应用二阶弱化算子的GM(1,1)模型对能源消费总量进行预测,并在此基础上,以2005年为基准年,建立能源消费结构占比的马尔可夫链转移矩阵,实现对能源消费结构和碳排放进行有效预测。实验结果表明,应用灰色-马尔可夫链组合模型不仅可有效预测我国制定的能源消费结构与碳排放的减排目标的可行性,而且也可为保障国民经济的持续、稳定和健康发展,以及调整新的能源结构与制定相关政策等提供有益的预测手段。
Taking the historical data of China's energy consumption structure as an object,a combination model combining a Grey Model(1,1)[GM(1,1)]of the second-order weakening operator and Markov chain model is proposed to analyze China's future energy consumption structure and predict carbon emissions.In this paper,through the analysis of various energy historical data in the energy consumption structure and the conversion of carbon emissions,the GM(1,1)of the second-order weakening operator is used to predict the total energy consumption,and then taking 2005 as the benchmark year,the Markov chain transfer matrix of the proportion of energy consumption structure is established to achieve effective prediction of energy consumption structure and carbon emissions.The experimental results show that the application of the Grey-Markov chain model can not only effectively predict the feasibility of China's energy consumption structure and carbon emission reduction,but also provide a useful prediction method for ensuring the sustainable,stable and healthy development of the national economy,as well as adjusting the new energy structure and formulating relevant policies.
出处
《科技创新与应用》
2021年第13期1-6,13,共7页
Technology Innovation and Application
