摘要
新冠疫情暴发以来,我国体育经济受到严重冲击,同时也展现出了很高的韧性,这种韧性来源于多个方面,其中最为基础的是内生于居民行为中的对疫情威胁的"对冲"反应,即疫情发生后居民的体育参与会增长,从而构筑了体育经济韧性的微观行为基础。这种"对冲"反应究竟是一个短期"应激"还是长期行为,这一问题既关系到疫情之后对体育经济发展趋势判断的现实意义,又对居民体育参与行为研究和疫情经济社会影响研究补充具有重要理论价值,进而可对极端经济韧性来源理论做出重要补充。利用2003年SARS疫情这一历史自然实验,在中国居民健康和营养调查(CHNS)历次调查数据基础上,使用计量模型在控制其他因素前提下比较有疫情省份和无疫情省份居民体育参与行为的差异来实证判断疫情影响,发现疫情冲击导致居民体育参与行为发生了持续但并非永久的改变。同时发现,疫情死亡病例对居民体育参与行为的影响比居民所在区域内是否有疫情,以及疫情发病病例的影响更为深远,所带来的增长幅度更大,持续时间更长。另外,疫情的影响存在城乡差异,对城市居民体育参与行为的影响更为深远。这一结果加深了人们对于居民体育参与行为的理解。通常改变体育参与行为被认为是复杂的过程,然而重大传染病疫情的发生却带来了立竿见影的改变,并且这种改变会持续较长时间。由此判断,体育经济所具有的独特韧性会帮助其在经受疫情的"洗礼"之后打开新的增长空间。
Since the outbreak of COVID-19,China’s sports economy has been severely impacted,and it has also shown a high degree of resilience. This resilience is derived from the"hedging"response of sport participation to the pandemic,that is,after the outbreak of the pandemic,residents will participate more in sports,thus building the micro behavioral foundation for sports economic resilience. Is the"hedging"response a short-term"stress"or a long-term behavior? This question is relevant to judging future development of the sports industry post-pandemic,and is also theoretically valuable as an important supplement to research on residents’ sports participation behavior and the pandemic’s economic and social impact. It will also serve as an important supplement to the theories regarding the source of economic resilience under extreme conditions. Based on the historical natural experiment of SARS in 2003 and the China Health and Nutrition Survey data,an econometric model was constructed to evaluate SARS’effects on residents’ sports participation. It was found that the epidemic had resulted in long-term but impermanent changes in residents’ participation in sports. It was also found that the deaths from the epidemic had a more profound impact on residents’ sports participation behavior than other cases:the growth rate was greater and it lasted longer. In addition,the SARS epidemic has exerted a more far-reaching effect on the sports participation behavior of urban residents. These findings will deepen people’s understanding of residents’ sports participation behavior. Changing residents’ sports participation behavior is often regarded as a complicated process,however,the outbreak of infectious diseases brings immediate changes,and these changes will last long. This paper concludes that residents’ demand for sports participation will increase after the Covid-19 pandemic. Therefore,the unique resilience of the sports economy will help it open up a new growth space after the "test" of the pandemic.
作者
王裕雄
王超
周腾军
靳厚忠
刘媛媛
WANG Yu-xiong;WANG Chao;ZHOU Teng-jun;JIN Hou-zhong;LIU Yuan-yuan(School of Sport Economics and Management,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 102206,China;College of Business,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《北京体育大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期105-119,共15页
Journal of Beijing Sport University
基金
教育部人文社科规划基金项目“促进全民健身和扩大体育消费的策略冲突和协调”(项目编号:17YJA890026)。
关键词
体育参与
新冠疫情
体育产业
经济韧性
sports participation
COVID-19
sports industry
economic resilience
