摘要
民粹政党自转型之初就在中东欧各国政治中占有一席之地,随新自由主义的深入发展而更加繁荣,在选举中得到越来越多的支持,显著影响地区政治生态。本文通过投票行为的相关理论对这一现象进行研究,分析影响选民投票动机的因素。研究发现,生产系统转型在一些中东欧国家造成了人口结构向保守和本土主义的转变,构成民粹支持者的身份基础;转型的“非人民性”未使民众对代议民主和主流建制建立起忠诚与依赖,而“转型性衰退”和对各种危机的处理不当使主流政党产生绩效赤字;包袱更小的民粹政党通过各种提升政治正当性的策略,以提高其投资附加值,导致选民将选票投给预期回报更大的民粹政党;在转型质量较差的中东欧国家,政党系统分裂度高,选举波动性强,为边缘民粹政党提供了更多得到选民关注的政治机会。本文选择保加利亚民粹政党的兴起进行案例分析,较好支持了研究假设,使中东欧民粹政党兴起的解释更为充分和科学。
After their transition,populist parties have gained a foothold in the politics of Central and Eastern European countries.As they prosper with the deepening of neoliberal policies,they are gaining increasing electoral support and exerting significant influence on the regional political landscape.This paper examines the motivation of the voters through theories of voting behavior.The study finds that the transformation of production systems in some CEE countries has resulted in a demographic shift toward conservatism and nativism,which forms the basis of the identity of populist supporters.The“uncivicness”of the transition has failed to promote people’s loyalty to and trust in representative democracy and the mainstream establishment,while the“transitional recession”and the mishandling of various crises have created performance deficits for mainstream parties.As a result,populist parties,which have less baggage,have been able to use various strategies to enhance their political legitimacy in order to increase their attraction to voters.If the attraction can be likened to the added value voters seek in their investments(i.e.,the votes they cast),voters increasingly favor populist parties to gain greater expected returns.In CEE countries whose transition has been less than satisfactory,marginal populist parties have more political opportunities to attract voters thanks to the highly fragmented party systems and high electoral volatility.This paper’s case study of the rise of populist parties in Bulgaria supports the research hypotheses,and provides a more adequate and scientific explanation of the rise of populist parties in CEE.
出处
《国际论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期136-154,160,共20页
International Forum
