摘要
突发事件所产生的社会风险经过社交网络的传播和放大可能会引发社会冲突甚至危及社会稳定,探究社会风险放大的信息作用机制对有效预测、识别和管控社会风险具有重要意义。从社会层面和个体层面梳理了突发事件情境下影响个体风险感知放大的因素,构建了突发事件社会风险放大的信息作用机制理论模型和数学模型,基于multi-agent建模方法,构建了突发事件社会风险放大的动态演化模型,基于耦合网络模型探讨了官方媒体、非官方媒体对公众社会风险感知放大的信息作用机制,以及公众信任度的调节作用,从而对突发事件的社会风险放大机制有更深层次的探索。本文构造的模型从理论上可以洞察系统之间复杂的相互作用和影响关系,根据耦合网络模型所得实验结果可以更加准确地反映现实,为管理者及时应对突发事件社会风险提供有价值的建议。
Social risks caused by emergencies may cause social conflicts or even endanger social stability through the spread and amplification of social networks.It is of great significance to explore the information mechanism of social risk amplification for effective prediction,identification and control of social risks.The factors that affect the individual risk perception amplification in the emergency situation were combed from the social level and the individual level,the theoretical model and mathematical model of the information mechanism of the social risk amplification of the emergency and the dynamic evolution model of the social risk amplification of the emergency were constructed based on the multi-agent modeling method.In the basis of coupling network model,the information mechanism of the official media and the unofficial media to amplify the public's social risk perception,as well as the regulatory role of the public's trust,was discussed so as to have a deeper exploration on the mechanism of social risk amplification of emergencies.The model constructed in this paper can theoretically insight into the complex interaction and influence relationship between systems,and the experimental results based on the coupled network model can reflect the reality more accurately,providing valuable suggestions for managers to deal with social risks in emergencies.
作者
黄仕靖
陈国华
袁勤俭
Huang Shijing;Chen Guohua;Yuan Qinjian
出处
《图书与情报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期54-66,共13页
Library & Information
基金
江苏省哲学社会科学基金项目“学术虚拟社区知识交流的效果评价”(项目编号:17TQB003)研究成果之一。
