摘要
基于我国宏观经济内外部运行环境不确定性明显提高的事实,利用熵权法构建2000年1月以来月度重大突发事件不确定性指数,在此基础之上,运用带有随机波动的时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-SV-VAR)对突发事件与我国需求侧消费、投资、出口“三驾马车”之间的时变关系展开研究。等间隔脉冲响应结果显示,重大突发事件不确定性对我国经济需求侧增长冲击具有明显时变性特征,不同阶段冲击大小存在一定差异,近年来冲击波动有所减小;分领域看,出口受到不确定的冲击最大,投资次之,消费受到的冲击相对最小。时点脉冲响应结果显示,新冠肺炎疫情对我国内需增长造成明显冲击,冲击程度大于非典型肺炎疫情和2008年国际金融危机;在稳外贸政策支撑下,新冠肺炎疫情对出口的冲击小于国际金融危机。基于新冠肺炎疫情带来的冲击结果,从需求侧视角为后疫情时代中国经济增长提供政策建议。
Based on the fact that the uncertainty of internal and external operating environment of China's macroeconomics has increased significantly,the entropy method is used to construct the uncertainty index of the monthly major emergencies since January 2000.On this basis,the TVP-SV-VAR model is used to study the time-varying relationship between emergencies and the troika of consumption,investment and export on China's demand side.The results of the equally spaced impulse response show that the uncertainty of major emergencies has obvious time-varying characteristics of the demand-side growth impact in China.There are certain differences in the magnitude of impacts at different stages.In recent years,the impact fluctuation has been reduced.By sector,export is the biggest hit by uncertainty,followed by investment,and consumption is the least one.The time-point impulse response shock results show that the COVID-19 has had a significant impact on China's domestic demand growth,and the impact is significantly greater than during the SARS and international financial crisis.Besides,the impact of COVID-19 on exports is less than international financial crisis.Based on the impact of the COVID-19,it provides policy recommendations for China's economic growth in the post-epidemic era from a demand side perspective.
作者
陈璇璇
张旭
胡晨沛
CHEN Xuanxuan;ZHANG Xu;HU Chenpei(International Statistical Information Center, National Bureau of Statistics, Beijing 100826, China)
出处
《南京财经大学学报》
CSSCI
2021年第2期1-12,共12页
Journal of Nanjing University of Finance and Economics
基金
浙江省杰出青年科学基金项目“经济由高速度增长向高质量发展转变的实现建模与实证分析”(LR20G030001)
全国统计科学研究项目“适合中国国情的地区总量生产函数模型构建及应用研究”(2020LY022)。
