摘要
探究农户耕地复种指数的制约因素,为落实国家粮食安全战略和促进土地集约化利用提供理论和实证依据。该研究基于2018年湖北农户实地调查数据,采用反事实分析框架,运用倾向得分匹配法(Propensity Score Matching,PSM)和广义倾向得分匹配法(Generalized Propensity Score Matching Method,GPSM)分析土地流转对农户耕地复种指数的影响。结果表明:土地流转对农户耕地复种指数有显著的正向影响,土地流转会显著提升耕地复种指数0.244个单位,水田转入和旱地转入会分别显著提升耕地复种指数0.299和0.204个单位;土地转入面积、水田转入面积和旱地转入面积对农户耕地复种指数的提升存在规模报酬递增效应,即耕地复种指数提高的比例要比流转面积提高的比例更大,且水田转入面积的规模报酬递增效应更明显;从作用机制检验来看,土地流转能够通过每公顷流转费反作用路径和要素集约促进路径提升农户耕地的复种程度,每公顷流转费起到调节作用,要素集约率起到中介作用,中介效应的大小为8.9%。建议健全土地流转市场机制,鼓励农户参与土地流转,因地制宜制定耕作制度,改善农业生产条件,从而提高耕地复种指数。
Major changes have taken place in agricultural production and operation with the continuous increase in the scale and intensification of rural land transfer.The original farming depends mainly on these impacts of land circulation.However,few studies focused on land transfer to explore the changes in farming systems.It is necessary to figure out the cropping behavior of farmland under the land transfer.The purpose of this research is to investigate the restrictive factors for the multiple cropping index of arable land.Taking the field survey data of farmers in Hubei in 2018,propensity score matching(PSM)and generalized propensity score matching(GPSM)were used to analyze the impact of land transfer on the multiple cropping index of farmers.The results showed that:1)There were positive impacts of land transfer on the farmland multiple cropping index,according to PSM estimation.The land transfer,paddy field transfer,and dry land transfer significantly increased the farmland multiple crop index by 0.244,0.299,and 0.204,respectively.2)There was a significant positive impact of the arable land and the area transferred from dry land on the farmland multiple cropping index,according to the estimation from GPSM.There was an increasing return to scale effect in three simultaneous transfers.Specifically,the increase in the multiple crop index of arable land was greater than that of the circulation area and the paddy field.There was a more obvious effect of increasing returns to scale.Land transfer helped to increase the index of multiple cropping in cultivated land.The effect of paddy fields was more obvious,meaning that the highly intensive use of cultivated land for better food security.3)In mechanism,the land transfer increased the degree of multiple cropping in farmland via the counter-effect path of average transfer cost per mu and the promotion path of factor intensive.The average transfer cost per mu played a regulating role,and the factor intensive rate played an intermediary role.The size of the effect was 8.9%.In p
作者
彭继权
Peng Jiquan(School of Economics,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第5期285-294,共10页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72063012)
教育部人文社科项目(20YJC790103)
江西省社会科学基金项目(20YJ33)
深圳社科规划项目(SZ2020C013)。
关键词
土地流转
农户
复种指数
倾向得分匹配法
广义倾向得分匹配法
land circulation
farmers
multiple cropping index
propensity score matching method
generalized propensity score matching method
