摘要
【目的/意义】大数据时代,随着线上线下网络不断加速融合,把握线上线下耦合机理是掌握突发事件网络舆情的重要方面。【方法/过程】以线上线下互动系统为视角,借助系统动力学方法针对突发事件而产生的线上、线下网络进行耦合分析,同时以线上线下互动量和线上线下趋同度作为耦合度衡量的指标,并最终以耦合度为标准分析线上、线下网络的耦合机理及演化过程。【结果/结论】通过模拟仿真,大致得出关于线上线下耦合机理的若干条规律。【创新/局限】研究视角和研究方法具有系统性和创新性,通过定量与定性相结合,动态地分析模拟关键因素对耦合度的影响,具有明显的说理优势,但是对综合舆情产生的多次波动而变化的耦合机理等都还有待研究。
【Purpose/significance】In the era of big data, with the accelerating fusion of online and the offline networks, it is an important aspect to master the online and offline coupling mechanism for grasping public opinion in emergent events.【Method/process】From the perspective of interaction system between the online and the offline, the system dynamics method is used to analyze the online group and offline group generated by emergencies, meanwhile, the participants and the convergence were used as the metrics of coupling. Finally, using the coupling metrics, analyzes the coupling mechanism and evolution process of online and offline networks.【Result/conclusion】Through stimulation, several rules about the online and offline coupling mechanism are roughly drawn.【Innovation/limitation】The research view and method are systematic and innovative, through the combination of quantitative and qualitative,dynamically analyses the influence of key factors on the coupling simulation, which has obvious reasoning advantages, but the complex coupling mechanism of the fluctuation from general public opinion remains to be studied.
作者
叶琼元
夏一雪
兰月新
张鹏
王娟
YE Qiong-yuan;XIA Yi-xue;LAN Yue-xin;ZHANG Peng;WANG Juan(Zhejiang Immigration Inspection,Hangzhou 310000,China;The Chinese People's Police University,Langfang 065000,China)
出处
《情报科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期25-31,共7页
Information Science
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“面对舆情大数据的突发事件民意分析与决策支持研究”(17CXW015)。
关键词
突发事件
系统动力学
网络舆情
耦合机理
模拟仿真
emergent events
dynamics model
network public opinion
coupling mechanism
stimulation
