摘要
养老保险基金收支平衡是养老保险制度可持续发展的关键。本文通过构建养老金精算模型,对2018—2060年城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支进行了测算,研究在全面二孩及延迟退休政策背景下城镇职工基本养老保险基金收支平衡能否持续的问题。研究结果表明:在考虑全面二孩及延迟退休政策下,城镇职工基本养老保险基金将于2051年起出现“收不抵支”的财务危机,需要借助政府的财政补贴。为缓解养老基金支付压力,防范基金收支失衡风险,政府应尽早实施延迟退休年龄方案。同时,由于全面二孩政策的作用效果存在滞后期且延迟退休方案只能一定程度上增收减支,并不能完全消除养老保险基金的财务危机,政府应寻求更多渠道的补充资金筹集方式。
Endowment insurance funds meeting the ends is the key to the sustainable development of endowment insurance system.By constructing the actuarial model for endowment insurance funds,this paper calculates the revenue and expenditure of basic endowment insurance funds of urban workers during 2018—2060 and studies whether the balance of revenue and expenditure of the basic endowment insurance funds of urban workers can continue under the background of the policy of two children and retire age delay.The research results show that under the policy of overall two children and retire age delay,the balance of basic endowment insurance funds of urban workers will have financial crisis of the revenue not meeting the expenditure since 2051,and need the governmental financial subsidy.In order to mitigate the expenditure pressure of the endowment insurance funds and prevent the unbalanced revenue and expenditure of the funds,therefore,the government should implement the scheme of retire age delay as soon as possible and use more channels to raise money to supplement the funds because the acting effect of the policy of overall two children has lagging period and because the scheme of retire age delay can only increase the revenue and reduce the expenditure to some extent and because both policies can not completely eliminate the financial crisis of the funds.
作者
张军
成川南
陈元刚
ZHANG Jun;CHENG Chuan-nan;CHEN Yuan-gang(Management School,Chongqing University of Technology,Chongqing 400054,China;School of Economics and Finance,Chongqing University of Technology,Chongqing 400054,China)
出处
《重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第3期9-20,共12页
Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University：Social Science Edition
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD112)“中华民族传统福利文化研究”
国家社科基金一般项目(11BSH066)“我国适度普惠型社会福利制度构建的理论基础与路径选择研究”。
关键词
延迟退休
全面二孩政策
基本养老保险
收支平衡
retire age delay
overall two children policy
basic endowment insurance
balance of revenue and expenditure
