摘要
伴随经济结构性减速、国际环境冲击和短期疫情影响,制度变革和生产率提升是新时代中国经济持续稳定发展的关键。文章在不变替代弹性生产函数下构建了一个含有制度变量的内生经济增长理论框架,推导出制度通过影响生产要素的技术进步效率和要素配置效率进而影响经济增长。以党的十四大(1992年)为划分依据,将改革开放四十年划分为两个不同制度阶段进行实证检验,研究结果表明:相对于"双制"共存期,市场化经济体制主导期的要素替代弹性大幅提升,经济活力增强,资源配置效率提高。改革开放四十年,要素配置偏向效应对经济增长产生的促进作用小于技术进步偏向效应对经济增长产生的抑制作用,新常态下经济增长处于低迷状态的主因在于劳动投入、劳动体现型技术进步和要素配置偏向资本三者的增速均下降,同时技术进步偏向资本,而且这种趋势在短期内还将延续,预测在2021—2025年间生产率和劳动力增速将呈负增长。因此,全面深化改革释放经济活力,激发技术研发与创新,提高生产率和劳动力就业,才能有效促进经济持续稳定发展。
With the structural slowdown of the economy, the impact of the international environment and the impact of the short-term epidemic, institutional change and the improvement of productivity are the keys to the sustained and stable development of the China’s economy in the new era. This paper constructs a theoretical framework of endogenous economic growth with institutional variables under the constant substitution elasticity production function, and deduces that institution influences economic growth by affecting technological progress efficiency and factor allocation efficiency of production factors. By taking the 14 th National Congress of the CPC(1992) as the basis, China’s forty years of reform and opening up is divided into two different institutional stages for empirical tests, and the results show that compared with the "dual system" coexistence period, the elasticity of substitution of factor in the market economy dominated period has improved greatly, economic vitality has been strengthened, and the resource allocation efficiency has been improved. In the forty years of reform and opening-up, the promoting effect produced by the factor allocation orientation on economic growth is less than the inhibitory effect caused by technological progress on economic growth. Under the new normal, the main reasons of the continuous economic downturn is that the growth of labor input, labor embodied technological progress and the factor allocation towards capital are all decreasing. Technological progress tends to involve more capital and the trend will continue in the short term, and it is predicted that in 2021 to 2025, the growth of productivity and labor will be negative. Therefore, only by comprehensively deepening reform can we unleash economic vitality, stimulate technological research and innovation, and improve productivity and labor employment so as to effectively promote sustained and stable economic development.
作者
钟世川
毛艳华
蔡火娣
梁经伟
ZHONG Shi-chuan;MAO Yan-hua;CAI Huo-di;LIANG Jing-wei(School of Economics and Trade,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510521,China;School of Financial Mathematics and Statistics,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510521,China;Institute of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Development Studies,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;School of Economics,Changzhou University,Changzhou 213164,China)
出处
《云南财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第3期16-26,共11页
Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“经济增长分化下中国区域生产率提升潜力及实现路径研究”(19CJL017)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“区域经济增长分化下技术进步适宜性与优化路径研究”(18YJC790235)
全国统计科学研究一般项目“大数据背景下生态文明建设统计监测研究”(2018LY03)
江苏省高校项目“生产分割视角下全球价值链治理与我国产业高端攀升研究”(2020SJA1204)。
关键词
经济增长
技术进步
全要素生产率
制度变革
Economic Growth
Technological Progress
Total Factor Productivity
Institutional Change
