摘要
本文试图检验微观企业披露的固定资产信息对宏观经济增长的预测价值。研究发现,汇总层面的固定资产原值增长率与未来一期GDP增长率显著正相关,表明固定资产信息具有反映未来经济变动趋势的功能。区分产权性质后,本文发现总体上国有企业和非国有企业的固定资产原值均具有对GDP增长的预测作用,但国有企业的固定资产原值在政府干预较高的情形下无法预测GDP增长。进一步分析发现,相比于会计盈余,固定资产原值能够预测未来更长时期的GDP增长。本文拓宽了会计信息宏观预测价值的现有研究视角,丰富了基于中国制度环境下的宏观经济预测机制和理论体系,深化了会计信息有用性的研究。
This paper aims to investigate the macroeconomic forecasting value of fixed assets information disclosed by micro enterprises.The results document a significantly positive correlation between aggregate original value of fixed assets growth and future GDP growth,which indicates that fixed assets information has the function of reflecting future economic tendency.Besides,original value of fixed assets of state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises can both predict future GDP growth.However,original value of fixed assets of state-owned enterprises cannot forecast future GDP growth under high government intervention.Further tests show that compared with accounting earnings,original value of fixed assets has forecasting value to further GDP growth.This study broadens the research on macroeconomic forecasting value of accounting information and enriches macro forecasting mechanism and theoretical system based on China’s institutional environment,which deepens the research on the usefulness of accounting information.
作者
马永强
张志远
Ma Yongqiang;Zhang Zhiyuan
出处
《会计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第10期50-65,共16页
Accounting Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71872151
72010107001
71472152)
财政部“会计名家培养工程”项目的资助。
关键词
固定资产原值
GDP
宏观经济增长预测
Original Value of Fixed Assets
GDP
Macroeconomic Growth Forecasting
