摘要
本文试图检验微观企业披露的商业信用信息对宏观经济增长的预测价值。回归结果显示,汇总层面的应收账款增长与未来GDP增长显著负相关,表明商业信用具有反映未来经济趋势的预测信息含量。此外,对于市场地位较高、所在行业竞争较弱和客户集中度较高的企业,应收账款增长对GDP增长的预测功能更强。随后的检验发现,相比于会计盈余,应收账款能够预测未来更长时期的经济走势。此外,汇总层面的坏账准备同样能够预测未来GDP趋势。本文丰富了会计信息的宏观经济预测价值研究,对及时预测宏观经济走势和有效监测并防范宏观经济风险具有重要的参考价值。
This paper aims to investigate the forecasting value to macroeconomic growth of trade credit information disclosed by enterprises.The results document significantly negative correlations between aggregate accounts receivable growth and future GDP growth,which indicate that trade credit has information content reflecting future economic trends.In addition,for enterprises with higher market position,weaker industry competition and higher customer concentration,aggregate accounts receivable growth has stronger forecasting value to GDP growth.Subsequent tests find that the forecasting period of accounts receivable is longer than accounting earnings.Besides,aggregate bad-debt provision growth can also predict future GDP tendency.This paper enriches the research about the macroeconomic forecasting value of accounting information,which contributes to forecasting future macroeconomic trend timely and preventing economic risks effectively.
作者
马永强
张志远
YONGQIANG MA;ZHIYUAN ZHANG
出处
《中国会计评论》
2021年第4期545-574,共30页
China Accounting Review
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71872151、72010107001、71472152)
财政部“会计名家培养工程”项目的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
商业信用
应收账款
GDP
宏观经济预测
Trade Credit
Accounts Receivable
GDP
Macroeconomic Forecasting
