摘要
本文从家庭超常规杠杆风险的传染性切入,探寻化解家庭部门高杠杆金融风险传染的路径,以释放家庭在"国内大循环"中的内需潜力。依托社会传染理论和情绪感染理论,借助中国家庭追踪调查的全国31个省份42777个家庭样本构成面板数据,实证探析了家庭间超常规杠杆的双重传染效应,并以媒介依赖理论的视角验证了家庭互联网依赖的干预作用。研究发现:家庭间超常规杠杆存在"U型"的直接传染效应;通过家庭间投资情绪的传染可以中介实现家庭超常规杠杆的再次传染;家庭对互联网的过度依赖对于家庭间超常规杠杆和投资情绪的传染过程均起正向促进作用。此外,通过在农村与城市家庭中的验证巩固了家庭间超常规杠杆的"U型"直接传染和投资情绪的中介传染,进一步发现:农村家庭相比城市家庭,直接传染的"U型"拐点提前预示其将更早发生超常规杠杆的扩散作用。上述结论不仅为防范家庭风险的扩散性传播以及为维护地区金融安全提供了参考,并且提出了对于城乡家庭在防范金融风险方面的政策建议。
This paper explores the ways to resolve the financial risk contagion of family high leverage from the perspective of the contagiousness of risk of family abnormal leverage,in order to release the domestic demand potential of families in the"domestic big cycle".Based on the theory of social contagion and emotional contagion,this paper uses the panel date of 42777 household samples from 31 provinces by China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),empirically explores the dual contagious path of abnormal leverage among households,and verifies the intervention effect of family Internet dependence from the perspective of media dependence theory.It is found that,the"U-type"direct infectious effect exists in the abnormal leverage among families;the re-infection of the abnormal leverage can be mediated by the transmission of investment emotion among families;the over-dependence of families on the Internet has a positive effect on the transmission process of the abnormal leverage and investment emotion among families.In addition,the validation in rural and urban households consolidated the"U-type"direct transmission of abnormal leverage among households and the intermediary transmission of investment sentiment.It is further found that the"U-type"early inflection point of direct infection in rural households predicted that the diffusion of abnormal leverage would occur earlier than urban households.These conclusions not only provide reference for preventing the spread of family risks and maintaining regional financial security,but also put forward policy suggestions for urban and rural families in preventing financial risks.
作者
丁黎黎
韦伟
于文成
DING Li-li;WEI Wei;YU Wen-cheng(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Marine Development Studies Institute of OUC,Qingdao 266100,China;School of Economics,Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,China)
出处
《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第2期49-61,共13页
Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71973132)
山东省自然科学基金青年项目(ZR2020QG019)。
关键词
家庭超常规杠杆
家庭投资情绪
互联网依赖
传染
household abnormal leverage
household investment sentiment
Internet dependence
contagion
