摘要
目的:为促进广东省医药制造业出口交货值增加、提高医药制造业出口占比和国际化水平提供参考。方法:选取1998-2019年广东省医药制造业数据,建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,通过协整关系检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等实证研究探讨广东省医药制造业出口贸易活动(出口交货值)、研发投入(研发经费内部支出)、技术创新(技术改造费用)间的关系。结果与结论:通过协整关系检验与格兰杰因果检验可知,广东省医药制造业出口贸易活动与研发投入、技术创新存在稳定的均衡关系;技术创新是出口交货值的格兰杰原因,其能够正向促进出口贸易活动的增加,滞后期为2年;出口交货值是研发投入的格兰杰原因,其能够促进研发投入的增加,且随着时间的推移影响越来越大;研发投入是技术创新的格兰杰原因,能够促进技术创新的增加。通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解可知,广东省医药制造业出口贸易活动、研发投入和技术创新存在相互影响的动态均衡关系。出口交货值的变动主要受自身影响较大,技术创新为辅助促进作用(贡献率约为7%)。建议企业应重视技术改造与研发投入,打造高技术医药制造产业,充分发挥岭南中医药产品的特色,增强优势出口医药产品的技术竞争力,优化医药产业布局,提升国际竞争力。
OBJECTIVE:To provide reference for increasing the export trade of Guangdong’s pharmaceutical manufacturing industry,and improving the proportion of pharmaceutical manufacturing export and internationalization level.METHODS:The data of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Guangdong province were collected from 1998 to 2019,and vector autoregressive(VAR)model was established.The relationship of export trade activities(export delivery value),R&D investment(R&D internal expenditure)and technological innovation(technological transformation cost)of pharmaceutical manufacturing industry in Guangdong province were explored empirically through cointegration relationship test,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition.RESULTS&CONCLUSIONS:Through the cointegration relationship test and Granger causality test,it could be seen that there was a stable equilibrium relationship among the export trade activities of Guangdong pharmaceutical manufacturing industry,R&D investment and technological innovation.Technological innovation was the Granger cause of export delivery value and could positively promotes the increase in export trade activities,with a lag period of 2 years.The export delivery value was the Granger reason for R&D investment,which could promote the increase of R&D investment,and the influence will become greater and greater over time.R&D investment is the Granger cause of technological innovation,which can promotes the increase of technological innovation.Through impulse response function and variance decomposition,it could be known that the export trade activities,R&D investment and technological innovation of Guangdong’s pharmaceutical manufacturing industry had a dynamic interaction relationship.The change in export delivery value is mainly affected by itself,and technological innovation is an auxiliary promotion effect(contribution rate of 7%).It is suggested that enterprises should pay attention to technological transformation and R&D investment,build high-tech phar
作者
张宇杰
孙圣兰
ZHANG Yujie;SUN Shenglan(School of Medical Business,Guangdong Pharmaceutical University,Guangzhou 510006,China)
出处
《中国药房》
CAS
北大核心
2021年第6期647-652,共6页
China Pharmacy
基金
全国教育科学规划2019年度教育部重点课题(No.DFA190319)
2019年度广东省医学科研基金立项项目(No.A2019325)。
关键词
医药制造业
出口贸易活动
研发投入
技术创新
向量自回归模型
Pharmaceutical manufacturing industry
Export trade activities
R&D investment
Technological innovation
Vector autoregressive model
