摘要
促进房地产市场平稳健康发展有利于我国宏观经济稳健运行。党的十九大以来,各级政府坚持"房住不炒"原则,出台了一系列政策细则,房地产长效管理机制逐步完善。本文梳理了我国房地产业发展的历史,探讨了我国房地产市场的周期特征及其成因,使用马尔科夫区制转移模型和改进后的l_(1)趋势滤波得到市场变化的拐点,由此划分出各个周期的起始点。结果表明:1991年至2016年第一季度,我国房地产市场经历了五轮完整周期,早在1998住房改革之前已经结束了一轮完整的周期;2016年第一季度以后直到2019年底,我国房地产市场处于第六个周期。最后,提出继续增加保障性住房和普通商品住房有效供给、完善土地财政税收制度、防范资金违规流入房地产市场等政策建议。
The healthy development of the real estate industry is vital to the stability of China’s macroeconomy.Since the19 th National Congress of CPC,governments at all levels have maintained the principle that "housing is for living,not for speculation." With the launch of a series of policies,China’s long-term mechanism for housing management has gradually improved.This paper reviews the history of China’s real estate market and explores its cyclical features with a Markov Switching Model.We identify the turning points of the market using a modified trend filter and divide each cycle accordingly.Our results show that:there are five complete cycles from 1991 to 2016 Q1,with the first cycle ended before the 1998 Housing Reform;from 2016 Q1 to 2019,the sixth cycle is still in progress.Finally,we put forward some policy recommendations,such as increasing the effective supply of indemnificatory housing and commercial real estate,improving the land finance,and preventing illegal funds from entering the real estate market.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2020年第3期60-63,177,共5页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
2019年度安徽高校人文社科重点项目(SK2019A0469)资助。
