水资源约束下雄安新区建设对京津冀地区的经济影响——基于城市间投入产出优化模型的分析被引量：2

The Economic Impacts of the Construction of Xiong'an New Area on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region under the Constraints of Water Resources—Based on an Inter-city Input-output Model

原文传递

导出

摘要作者利用京津冀城市间投入产出优化模型探讨了雄安新区建设对京津冀地区的经济影响。研究发现,一方面,雄安新区的中期和远期建设将分别带来4.3亿m 3和10.9亿m 3的用水缺口,这部分用水缺口转移到周边地区将导致京津冀其他地区的最优GDP分别下降0.08%和0.26%,其中,受影响最大的部门是农业,受影响最大的城市是衡水。另一方面,雄安新区的中期和远期建设会通过需求拉动使京津冀其他地区的最优GDP分别增长4.76%和6.82%,其中,受益较大的部门包括机械设备制造业、电气机械和电子通信业、石油炼焦及化学工业等,受益较大的城市为保定(除雄安)、北京和天津。总体来看,雄安新区建设对京津冀地区经济的正面效应远大于负面效应,可成为促进京津冀地区经济发展的新契机和新抓手。 Through applying the inter-city input-output optimization model of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)region,this paper simulated the economic impact of the construction of Xiong'an New Area on the BTH region.The results showed that the mid-term and long-term construction of Xiong'an New Area would result in water gaps of 430 million m 3 and 1.09 billion m 3,respectively,and the transfer of the water gap to surrounding areas would reduce the optimal GDP of the rest of the BTH region by 0.08%and 0.26%,and the most affected sector would be agriculture,and the most affected area would be Hengshui.Meanwhile,the medium-term and long-term construction of Xiong'an New Area would increase the optimal GDP of the rest of the BTH region by 4.76%and 6.82%through demand-driven effect.The mostly benefited sectors included Manufacture of machinery and equipment,Electrical machinery and electronic communication,and Petroleum,coking and chemical industry,and the mostly benefited cities included Baoding(Xiong'an excluded),Beijing and Tianjin.This study verified the positive effect of the construction of Xiong'an New Area in promoting the economic growth in the BTH region and thus empirically proved that the construction of Xiong'an New Area would be a new opportunity and starting point for further development of the BTH region.

作者李元杰张卓颖石敏俊 LI Yuan-jie;ZHANG Zhuo-ying;SHI Min-jun(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Key Laboratory of Management,Decision and Information Systems,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)