摘要
作者使用2007年增值税转型改革的政策实验,立足于中部地区崛起战略的经济效应,分析增值税转型改革对区域经济增长的影响。基于中部地区的经济发展在稳定全国经济增长和降低经济增长波动中的典型事实,尤其是在2007年美国金融危机波及全球后,中部地区的稳定效应更为显著。作者构造中部6省26个老工业城市和全国资源型老工业城市(东北三省除外)的DID模型,经验结果发现,以2007年的增值税转型改革为例的中部地区崛起战略具有显著经济增长效应,即相比于其他资源型老工业城市,在2008年,2007年增值税转型改革使得中部地区26个城市的实际GDP增长率提高2.20%。本文的研究结论将为中部地区经济增长、区域经济的均衡发展提供政策和建议,也将服务于新常态下全国的经济结构调整和优化,实现我国经济高质量、可持续的增长和发展。
This paper uses the policy experiment of VAT(Value-added Tax)transformation reform in 2007,based on the economic effects of the Rising Strategy of Central China,and analyzes the impact of VAT reform on regional economic growth.Based on the typical facts of economic development in the central region to stabilize national economic growth and reduce fluctuations in economic growth,especially after the US financial crisis hit the world in 2007,the stability effect in the central region is more significant.This paper constructs the DID model of 26 old industrial cities in the central 6 provinces and the old resource-based industrial cities in the country(except the three provinces in Northeast China).The empirical results show that the VAT transformation reform in 2007 as an example of the Rising Strategy of Central China is a significant economic growth effect.That is to say,compared with other resource-based old industrial cities,the 2007 VAT reform will increase the real GDP growth rate of the central 26 cities by 2.20%in 2008.The conclusions of this paper will provide policies and recommendations for the economic growth of the central region and the balanced development of the regional economy.They will also serve the adjustment and optimization of the national economic structure under the new normal to achieve high-quality and sustainable growth and development in China.
作者
张凯强
ZHANG Kai-qiang(National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028,China)
出处
《城市与环境研究》
CSSCI
2020年第4期43-59,共17页
Urban and Environmental Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“近几年减税降费政策效果评估研究”(批准号:20CJY058)。
关键词
中部地区崛起战略
增值税转型改革
资源型老工业城市
经济增长
the Rising Strategy of Central China
VAT transformation reform
resource-based old industrial cities
economic growth
