摘要
目的了解福建省胎传梅毒时空分布特征,为开展消除梅毒母婴传播工作提供依据。方法收集福建省各县区2015—2019年胎传梅毒疫情监测数据,用ArcGIS 10.3和SatScan 9.6软件进行热点县区分析,寻找可能的时空聚类。结果 5年来福建省胎传梅毒报告病例数逐年减少,全局自相关分析显示2015—2017年全省胎传梅毒为高值聚类,2018年、2019年表现为随机分布;局部Getis-Ord Gi^(*)指数分析显示胎传梅毒热点地区并不固定,2015—2017年热点区县基本覆盖了福州、莆田市辖区内的县区和泉州市部分县区;2018年后热点县区较分散,分布在南平市、三明、厦门、漳州和宁德市部分县区;2019年热点县区骤减为3个;时空扫描分析提示最大可能聚集区为福州市辖区内的县区,聚集时间为2015—2017年。结论福建省胎传梅毒疫情的空间分布,已从高值聚类向随机分布转变,发病热点县区有减少的趋势。
Objective To study the characteristics of spatial-temporal distribution of congenital syphilis cases in Fujian for eliminating the mother-to-child transmission of syphilis. Methods The surveillance data on congenital syphilis cases at county levels were collected in Fujian from 2015 to 2019. The hotspot counties were analyzed and the possible spatial and temporal clustering counties explored by using the packages of ArcGIS10.3 and SaTScan 9.6. Results In the past five years, the reported cases of congenital syphilis in Fujian were decreasing year by year. The congenital syphilis cases existed a high-value clustering from 2015 to 2017 by global spatial autocorrelation analysis, but a random distribution existed in 2018 and 2019. The hot spot areas of congenital syphilis cases were shifting by using Getis-Ord Gi^(*) index analysis, the hot spot areas basically covered all of counties under the jurisdictions of Fuzhou and Putian City and some counties of Quanzhou City from 2015 to 2017. Hotspot areas were dispersed and distributed in some counties under the jurisdiction of Nanping, Sanming, Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Ningde City after 2018. The number of hotspot areas suddenly decreased to three counties In 2019. The highest possible clustering areas were located in the counties of Fuzhou City by spatial-temporal scan analysis during 2015-2017. Conclusion The spatial distribution of the epidemic of congenital syphilis in Fujian has changed the model from high-value clustering to random distribution. There is decreasing tendency for the numbers of hot spots counties.
作者
卢晓丽
张春阳
柯丽贞
王惠榕
LU Xiaoli;ZHANG Chunyang;KE Lizhen;WANG Huirong(Fujian Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fujian 350001,China)
出处
《海峡预防医学杂志》
CAS
2020年第6期1-3,10,共4页
Strait Journal of Preventive Medicine
基金
福建省卫生健康科技计划项目资助(No.2017-1-24)
福建省卫生健康科技计划项目资助(No.2018-CXB-6)
福建省科技创新平台建设项目(No.2019Y2001)。
关键词
梅毒
胎传梅毒
母婴传播
空间自相关
时空聚集
Syphilis
Congenital Syphilis
Mother-to-child Transmission
Spatial Autocorrelation
Spatio-tempoml Clustering
