摘要
大坝风险因素错综复杂、关联密切,现有风险评价方法存在许多不确定性及模糊性,难以准确评估大坝风险状况。通过构建大坝风险评价指标体系,并基于大坝破坏模式分析各指标因素之间网络关系,求取大坝风险因素加权矩阵,结合模糊数学、德尔菲法等方法建立大坝风险模糊网络分析法评价模型。基于工程缺陷及脆弱度理念建立模糊关系矩阵,并应用于大余县油罗口水库及跃进水库。风险评价结果与实际情况基本相符,结合风险排序,探讨了风险管理措施,方法合理实用,可供类似工程风险评价及管理参考。
The risk factors of dam are complex and closely related,there are many uncertainties and fuzziness.In this paper,the index system of dam risk assessment is established,and based on the dam failure mode,the network relationship among the index factors is analyzed,the weighted matrix of dam risk factors is obtained,and the evaluation model of dam risk paste number network analysis method is established combining the advantages of fuzzy mathematics and Delphi method.Based on the concept of engineering defects and fragility,the fuzzy relation matrix is established.By applying it to Youluokou Reservoir and Yuejin Reservoir in Dayu County,the results of risk assessment are basically consistent with the actual situation.Combined with risk ranking,the risk management suggestions and measures are discussed.The method is reasonable and practical,and provides reference for risk assessment of similar projects in the future.
作者
周志维
马秀峰
Zhou Zhiwei;Ma Xiufeng(不详)
出处
《中国水利》
2021年第4期41-44,共4页
China Water Resources
基金
江西省水利厅科技项目(201820ZDKT12)
江西省水利厅科技项目(201921YBKT32)。
关键词
模糊评价
网络分析法
德尔菲法
风险管理
fuzzy evaluation
network analysis
Delphi method
risk management
