摘要
本文基于双重差分模型,采用2012—2018年中国37个地级市城市(9个珠三角城市加28个其他省大中城市)的面板数据,实证检验了粤港澳大湾区建设规划对珠三角地区房价的影响及其异质性效果,然后运用莫兰指数探究珠三角地区内房价变动是否存在空间效应。结果发现:粤港澳大湾区建设规划对珠三角地区房价存在显著正效应,且对不同人口规模和房价水平城市的房价影响效应存在不平衡性;珠三角地区房地产市场尚不存在明显的空间效应,粤港澳大湾区建设规划的出台在短期内可能会进一步拉开区域内各城市房价水平差距。基于此,珠三角地区在把握粤港澳大湾区建设历史发展机遇的同时,不能忽视房价波动风险,应坚决执行房地产市场调控政策,确保区域协调与高质量发展。
Using the DID method and the panel data of 37 prefecture-level cities(9 cities in the Pearl River Delta, 28 large and medium-sized cities in other provinces) from 2012 to 2018, we empirically test the impact of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area construction planning on the housing price fluctuation and its heterogeneity effect in the 9 cities. We simultaneously use Moran’s I to explore whether there is spatial effect of housing price fluctuation in the 9 cities. The results show that the very construction planning has a significant positive effect on housing price rise, and the effect on housing price in different population size or housing price level cities is unbalanced. There is no significant spatial effect in the real estate market in the Pearl River Delta, so the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area may lead to further widening of housing price gap among the 9 cities in the short term. Based on this, when those cities in the Pearl River Delta grasp the historical opportunity of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area construction, they should not ignore or neglect the risk of housing price fluctuation, and should resolutely implement the real estate market regulation policy to ensure regional coordination and high-quality development.
作者
刘广
张瑀
LIU Guang;ZHANG Yu(School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou University,510006,Guangzhou,Guangdong,China)
出处
《特区经济》
2021年第1期19-26,共8页
Special Zone Economy
关键词
粤港澳大湾区
商品房价格
区域规划
双重差分
莫兰指数
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Marco Greater Bay Area
housing price
regional planning
DID
Moran’s I
