摘要
结合普查数据和"百度迁徙"数据,研究城际人口流动现象的影响与成因。对普查数据的分析表明,我国城市房价升速与城市人口增长率有显著关联,除户籍人口以外,流动人口的影响也较大。流动人口每上升1%,房价将提升0.36%。而"百度迁徙"数据表明,房价对人口迁入的负反馈不显著。人们选择迁入一个城市,主要取决于此城市工资水平相对于原居住城市的差值以及两城市的距离远近。并未发现高房价抑制人口迁入的证据。因此,工资和房价水平都较高的城市仍将有大量外来人口进入,并进一步推高房价。解决一线城市房价增长过快的问题,关键在于提升二三线城市的竞争力。
Based on the census data and the Baidu migration data, this paper studies the impact and causes of inter-city population mobility. The analysis of the census data shows that there is a significant correlation between the rising rate of urban housing price and the growth rate of urban population in China. Apart from the registered population, the floating population can also have a rather significant impact. When the floating population increases by 1%, the housing price will in- crease by 0.36%. While the Baidu migration data shows that the negative feedback of the housing price on population immigration is not significant. How do people choose to move into a city de- pends mainly on the wage differences between the city and the city originally lived and the distance between the two. No evidence is found that higher housing prices would curb population immigration. Therefore, the cities with higher levels of wage and housing prices will still have a large number of external population, and the housing prices will be further pushed up. To solve the problem of rapid growth in housing prices in the first-tier cities, the key is to enhance the competitiveness of the sec- ond-tier and third-tier cities.
出处
《江西财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期11-19,共9页
Journal of Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics
关键词
房价
工资率
人口迁移
“百度迁徙”数据
housing price
wage rate
population migration
Baidu migration data
