摘要
根据山东省水资源供需和发展状况,采用系统动力学方法,通过设计保持现状型(S1)、经济发展型(S2)、节约用水型(S3)、综合发展型(S4)等4种发展情景,对山东省2019—2050年水资源供需平衡状况进行模拟及动态分析,结果表明:①山东省总需水量在不同情景下均随时间增加而增长,S1—S4下的平均总需水量分别为238.63、261.70、187.79、241.76亿m 3,模拟期末(2050年)的总需水量、缺水量及缺水指数分别为291.90、386.60、235.50、365.80亿m 3,7.93、14.70、2.29、15.32亿m 3以及0.373、0.818、0.108、0.720;②通过对4种情景的比较和分析,发现S4在需水量、缺水量、COD排放量等方面均处于适度水平,既能保证经济发展又能保证水资源可持续利用,是山东省应采纳的发展方案;③在未来发展中,山东省要将社会经济发展和水资源利用统筹考虑,通过提高节约用水意识、改进灌溉技术、减少水污染等措施,确保实现长久的水资源供需平衡和社会经济可持续发展。
According to the supply and demand situation of water resources in Shandong Province,this paper simulates and analyzes the water supply and demand balance of Shandong Province from 2019 to 2050 by designing four development scenarios,namely,status quo maintaining(S1),economic development(S2),water saving(S3)and comprehensive development(S4)with system dynamics(SD)method.The results show that:①The total water demand of Shandong Province increases with time under different scenarios.The average total water demands under S1—S4 are 23.863,26.170,18.779 and 24.176 billion m 3,respectively.The total water demand,water deficit and shortage index at the end of the simulation period(2050)are 29.190,38.660,23.550,36.580 billion m 3,0.793,1.470,0.229,1.532 billion m 3 and 0.373,0.818,0.108 and 0.720,respectively;②Based on the comparison and analysis of the four scenarios,it is found that S4 is at a moderate level in terms of water demand,water deficit and COD emission,which can ensure not only the economic development but also the sustainable utilization of water resources.This scenario is the development plan that Shandong Province should adopt;③Shandong Province should consider both the social-economic development and water resources utilization in the future development,and ensure a long-term balance between supply and demand of water resources and sustainable development of social economy by taking measures such as strengthening water saving consciousness,improving irrigation technology and reducing water pollution.
作者
张诗倩
赖锋
秦欢欢
ZHANG Shiqian;LAI Feng;QIN Huanhuan(School of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China;State Key Laboratory of Nuclear Resources and Environment,East China University of Technology,Nanchang 330013,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2021年第2期61-67,共7页
Pearl River
基金
东华理工大学博士科研启动基金(DHBK2016104)。
关键词
系统动力学
水资源供需平衡
缺水问题
山东省
system dynamics
water resources supply and demand balance
water deficit
Shandong Province
