摘要
水资源是限制干旱区可持续发展的关键因素。为缓解干旱区因社会经济需水增加引起的水资源供需矛盾,以哈密市伊州区为例,以2021年为基准年、2030为近景规划水平年、2040为远景规划水平年,在分析水资源系统中供、用、耗、排的基础上,展开水资源合理配置研究,分析不同规划情景下水资源供需平衡情况。结果表明,随着社会经济快速发展,哈密市伊州区的需水将会显著增加,由现状水平年的37502万m^(3)增加至2030水平年的39717万m^(3)与2040水平年的48756万m^(3),水资源供需矛盾日益凸显。水资源配置能够通过水库运行调度,有效缓解因水资源时空分布不均导致的缺水,有效保障各个部门的用水过程,使得哈密市伊州区现状与2030水平年的总体缺水率保持在较低水平,分别为2.78%与4.20%,维持了社会经济的稳定发展。但随着需水的持续增长,需水逐渐超过当地水资源系统承载能力,2040水平年的哈密市伊州区总体缺水率大幅增加至15.46%,其中生态、工业与农业部门的缺水率分别达到了8.37%、9.98%与22.15%,扰动了水生态稳定,限制了社会经济稳健发展,进而为哈密市伊州区可持续发展目标带来挑战。研究不仅可为哈密市伊州区水资源合理配置和用水结构的合理调整提供技术支撑,而且可为实现干旱区水资源统一管理和水量的统一调度提供理论依据。
Water is the vital factor constraining the sustainable development in arid area.To alleviate water shortage due to increasing socioeconomic water demand in arid area,Yizhou District in Hami is taken as a case study to evaluate the balance between water demand and supply in the future.Water demand in 2021,2030,and 2040 are selected as baseline,short-term planning,and long-term planning years,respectively,based on which rational water resources allocation is conducted.Results indicate that water demand in Yizhou District will increase remarkably due to rapid socioeconomic expansion,from 375.02 million m3 in 2021,to 397.17 and 487.56 million m3 in 2030 and 2040,respectively.Water resources allocation can effectively alleviate the water shortage led by the uneven temporal-spatial distribution of water availability.Water supply for socioeconomic users is thus ensured(the total water shortage rate in 2021 and 2030 are 2.78%and 4.2%,respectively),which is of significance for the local sustainability.However,as the over-increased water demand will exceed the regulating capacity of local water system in 2040,the total water shortage rate will considerably increase to 15.56%,among which the shortage rates of ecological,industrial,and agricultural users will be 8.37%,9.98%,and 22.15%,respectively.The stability of the local ecosystem,and economy will be altered,which will further challenge the sustainable development goals of Yizhou District.This paper cannot only help the rational water resources allocation and water use structure improving in Yizhou District,but also contribute to the water resources management in arid areas.
作者
阿哈提·克力木
曾俣杰
刘德地
AHATI•Ke-li-mu;ZENG Yu-jie;LIU De-di(Agricultural Water Supply Station of Yizhou District,Hami 839000,Xinjiang,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2023年第6期21-26,35,共7页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51879194)
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510602)
长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司开放创新基金项目(CX2020K03)。
