摘要
提出了一种改进的SEIR疫情传播模型(SAIR2D),对近期新疆爆发的新冠肺炎疫情流行机制进行了分析,并对传播趋势进行了初步预测。首先,考虑此次爆发的COVID-19病例多表现为无症状感染者(A)且A类人群的筛查检测过程需要时间,建立具有延迟效应的SAIR2D模型并进行数值解析和模拟仿真实验。结果表明,模型对疫情传播的相关估计与实际情况较为符合,特别是在疫情爆发初期能够较为准确的预测感染病例。最后,评估了封城的有效性,分析表明及时封城可以控制COVID-19的传播,提出的相关防控策略可为有关部门提供借鉴。
This article proposes an improved SEIR epidemic spread model(SAIR2D) to evaluate the epidemic mechanism of the New Crown Pneumonia outbreak in Urumqi,Xinjiang,and makes a preliminary prediction of the spread trend.First of all,considering that most of the COVID-19 cases in this outbreak are asymptomatic infections(A) and the screening and detection process of the A population takes time,establish a SAIR2 D model with a delay effect and perform numerical analysis and simulation experiments.The results show that the model’s estimation of the spread of the epidemic is more consistent with the actual situation,especially in the early stage of the outbreak,it can more accurately predict infection.Finally,the effectiveness of the closure of the city was evaluated,and the analysis showed that the timely closure of the city can restrain the spread of COVID-19 to a certain extent,and the prevention and control strategies can provide reference and theoretical guidance for relevant departments.
作者
于凯
白西柯
郭煜婕
YU Kai;BAI Xi-ke;GUO Yu-jie(School of Public Administration,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China;School of Information Management University,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China)
出处
《齐齐哈尔大学学报（自然科学版）》
2021年第1期89-94,共6页
Journal of Qiqihar University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
自治区自然科学基金一般项目(2019D01A22)
自治区天山青年计划项目(2018Q027)
新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目(XJUFE2020K042)。
