摘要
2019新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的暴发给中国乃至全球公共卫生带来了重大挑战,研究传染病动力学模型有助于更好地优化疫情防控政策、评估干预措施效果。在已知病毒传播规律的基础上,考虑城市间的有效距离因素,引入干预项参数,建立了可用于COVID-19疫情评估的SIR传播动力学模型;根据疫情的早期数据,分析了感染人数、死亡人数等指标性数值的发展趋势,评估了政府干预手段对趋势变化产生的影响。通过计算和理论分析表明,防控隔离和集中收治等措施有效抑制了病毒的蔓延态势。修正的SIR模型在COVID-19传播趋势分析上是可靠的,可以为制订未来的疫情干预决策提供较好的理论支持。
The epidemic of COVID-19 has brought great challenges to China and even global public health.Studying the dynamics model of infection disease is helpful for better optimizing prevention strategies and evaluating the effects of interventions.On the basis of knowning virus spread law,considering the effective distance between cities,and introducing the intervention parameters,a usable SIR spread dynamics model for the COVID-19 assessment was established.The development trend by the number of infections and deaths was analyzed according to the early data of the epidemics and the influence of government prevention and control measures on the trend was evaluated.Finally,through calculation and theoretical analysis,it is shown that the measures of prevention and control can effectively restrain the spread of the virus,and the modified SIR model mentioned above is reliable,which can provide a better theoretical support for the decisionmaking of future epidemic intervention.
作者
应毅
黄慧
任凯
刘定一
YING Yi;HUANG Hui;REN Kai;LIU Dingyi(College of Computer Science and Technology,Sanjiang University,Nanjing 210012;Jinling College of Nanjing University,Nanjing 210089)
出处
《科技促进发展》
CSCD
2020年第10期1213-1220,共8页
Science & Technology for Development
基金
2019年江苏省教育厅江苏省高等学校自然科学研究面上项目(19KJB520049):大数据质量关键技术研究及其在智慧医疗中的应用,负责人:黄慧
2019年三江学院校级科研重大项目(2019SJKY006):面向时序分析与预测的计算智能技术研究,负责人:应毅
关键词
2019冠状病毒病
SIR传播模型
政府防控措施
疫情分析
COVID-19
SIR propagation model
government prevention and control measures
epidemic situation estimation
