摘要
本文基于长江经济带11个省市2002-2018年的数据,采用变系数模型分析了汇率变动对于第二产业和第三产业的影响。研究结果显示,汇率变动对长江经济带各个区域产业结构的影响存在显著的不同。就长江上游地区而言,汇率变动仅对重庆和四川产生了显著的影响。在长江中游地区,汇率变动对安徽和江西的影响较为显著。汇率变动对长三角地区的上海、浙江和江苏的第二产业都具有显著的影响。与第二产业不同,汇率变动对区域第三产业影响的差异更为突出。在长江上游地区,汇率变动仅对四川具有明显的影响。在长江中游地区,汇率变动仅对靠近东部沿海地区的安徽和江西两省产生了显著影响。在长三角地区,汇率变动对江苏的影响则不再显著。
Based on the data of 11 provinces and municipalities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt during 2002-2018,this paper uses variable coefficient model to analyze the impact of exchange rate change on the secondary industry and the tertiary industry.The research results show that there is significant difference in the impact of exchange rate change on the industrial structure of each region of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.With regard to the regions at the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,the change of exchange rate has obvious effect on Chongqing and Sichuan.As for the regions at the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the change of exchange rate has relatively significant influence on Anhui and Jiangxi.In view of the delta area of the Yangtze River,the change of exchange rate has significant impact on the secondary industry of Shanghai,Zhejiang and Jiangsu.Different from the secondary industry,the influence of the change of exchange rate on the tertiary industry is different,the change of exchange rate only has significant impact on Sichuan in the regions at the upper reaches of the Yangtze River,only has significant effect on Anhui and Jiangxi which are closing to eastern coastal area in the regions at the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and has insignificant impact on Jiangsu in the delta area of the Yangtze River.
作者
苏科
周超
陈伟
SU Ke;ZHOU Chao;CHEN Wei(Yangtze Upriver Economic Research Center,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;Chongqing International Strategy Institute,Sichuan International Studies University,Chongqing 400031,China;School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《重庆工商大学学报（社会科学版）》
2021年第1期67-77,共11页
Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University：Social Science Edition
关键词
汇率变动
产业结构
长江经济带
change of exchange rate
industrial structure
the Yangtze River Economic Belt
