摘要
基于《山西省投入产出表》和《山西统计年鉴》,得到产业结构变化值、主导产业出口结构变化值和瓶颈产业进口结构变化值,通过格兰杰因果检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数和方差分解的计量方法对三者间关系进行实证研究。结果表明:山西省主导产业出口结构变化与产业结构变化互为因果关系,而瓶颈产业进口结构变化与产业结构变化的因果关联不大;山西省主导产业出口结构变化对产业结构变化的冲击总体呈正响应,但产业结构对其影响较弱;产业结构变化对主导产业出口结构变化的冲击总体呈负响应,且受主导产业出口结构影响较大。
Using the Input-output Table of Shanxi Province and Statistical Yearbook,the paper makes the value of industrial structure change,leading industry export structure change and bottleneck industry import structure change.Based on the Granger causality test,VAR model,impulse response function and variance decomposition,the author makes an empirical analysis to explore the relationship between and among the three variables.The empirical results show that the leading industry export structure and the industrial structure have a causal relationship,but the bottleneck industry import structure and the industrial structure influence each other weakly.The leading industry export structure has a positive but weak response to the industrial structure change.The industrial structure has a negative but strong response to the leading industry export structure.
作者
王莹
成艳萍
WANG Ying;CHENG Yan - ping(Institute for the study of Jin Merchants;Collaborative Innovation Centre of Shanxi Jin Merchants Study and Regional Economic Development, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, China)
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期124-128,F0003,共6页
On Economic Problems
基金
山西省哲学社会科学规划课题"资源集聚视角下的产业结构调整"(2015054006)
关键词
对外贸易结构
产业结构
投入产出法
international trade structure
industrial structure
input - output method
