摘要
"一带一路"沿线国家是我国能源投资重点区域,定量化评估我国在沿线国家能源投资风险及新冠肺炎疫情对其影响,对我国能源投资布局优化以应对突发事件冲击具有重要意义。本文利用集对分析评价了2000—2018年我国在沿线国家的能源投资风险时空变化特征,并基于关联分析从疫情影响能源投资风险变动及疫情因子与风险关联度的角度解析了疫情对能源投资风险的关联影响。研究发现,2000—2018年"一带一路"沿线国家能源投资风险整体呈现波动下降趋势,轻度和中度风险区国家主要分布于南亚、东盟、独联体和西亚区域的经济增速较快或资源禀赋较好的国家,较高和高度风险区国家主要分布于西亚、中亚和东盟部分地区。叠加疫情因素后,沿线国家能源投资风险排名呈现变动,南亚、东盟以及西亚部分国家受疫情影响较重导致风险排名上升,中亚部分国家排名下降,部分东盟国家如缅甸、越南、印度尼西亚等国以及部分中东国家如阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯等国家能源投资风险及叠加疫情因素后风险排名均较低。从疫情相关因素与能源投资风险关联度来看,人口密度高、人口流动大及公共卫生条件较差的国家更易受疫情影响,能源贸易量的削减将会导致投资风险的上升。结合评价结果,在现有合作条件和疫情影响下,未来能源战略部署中建议重点考虑的国家包括哈萨克斯坦、印度尼西亚、蒙古和沙特阿拉伯等能源较为丰富、能源合作基础好且受疫情影响相对较轻的国家。
The countries along China’s Belt & Road Initiative(BRI)are key regions for China’s energy investment.Quantitative assessments of China’s energy investment risks in the countries along the BRI and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the risks are of great significance for optimizing China’s energy investment layout to cope with the impact of emergencies.In this paper,set pair analysis was employed to evaluate the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of energy investment risks in countries along the BRI from 2000 to 2018,and the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy investment risks was analyzed based on relational analysis.The results show that the energy investment risks of the BRI countries present a fluctuating decreasing trend.Countries with mild and moderate risk are mainly located in South Asia,the ASEAN area,the CIS area and West Asia region with relatively fast economic growth or good resource endowment.Countries with relatively-high and high risk are mainly located in West Asia,Central Asia and parts of the ASEAN area.Taken epidemic factors into consideration,the energy investment risk ranking of the BRI countries present changes.The risk ranking of some countries located in the ASEAN area,South Asia,and West Asia increases,while it drops in some countries located in Central Asia.Specifically,for some ASEAN members,such as Myanmar,Vietnam and Indonesia,and some Middle East countries,such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia,the rankings of energy investment risk are low with or without considering epidemic factors.Nations with high population density,high population mobility and poor public health conditions are more vulnerable to the epidemic.The reduction of energy trade will lead to the increase of investment risks.Based on the evaluation results,under the current conditions of cooperation and considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,countries with abundant energy resources,good foundation of energy cooperation and relatively little impact from the pandemic,suc
作者
李志慧
齐麟
邓祥征
陈中飞
Li Zhihui;Qi Lin;Deng Xiangzheng;Chen Zhongfei(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;College of Geography and Environment,Shandong Normal University,Jinan250358;School of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou510632)
出处
《中国科学基金》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期728-739,共12页
Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China
关键词
能源投资风险
新冠肺炎疫情
集对分析
关联分析
“一带一路”
energy investment risks
COVID-19 pandemic
set pair analysis
relational analysis
China’s Belt&Road Initiative
