摘要
NOx是对大气环境和人类健康影响较大的一种污染物,解析城市机动车尾气NO_x的排放量和分担率,可为城市生态环境局进行决策和管理提供依据,同时对控制机动车保有量的发展规模具有重要的参考价值。以鞍山市城区为研究区域,以轻型客车、中型客车、轻型货车、重型客车和重型货车为研究对象,建立神经网络模型预测2018~2022年鞍山市机动车保有量,利用MOVES2014b模型中观层次计算各类型机动车的NOx排放因子,进而确定各车型近5年的NOx年排放量。结果表明,2018~2022年机动车每年NOx排放量分别占鞍山市NOx大气环境承载力的5.9%、7.0%、8.0%、8.7%和10.6%,正在逐年增长。NOx的移动源分担率分别为13.12%、15.39%、17.13%、18.29%和21.54%,而东北地区省会城市的移动源NO_x排放平均分担率36%,表明鞍山市机动车NO_x排放水平较低,在此分担率水平下,鞍山市机动车保有量规模预计可达117万辆,在现有固定源排放量不变的前提下仍有发展空间。
NOx is a pollutant with a relatively greater effect on the atmospheric environment and human health.Analysis on NOxemissions and sharing rates of motor vehicle exhausts can provide the basis for making decisions and managements of Anshan Ecological Environmental Protection Bureau,and present important reference value for controlling the development scale of motor vehicles.In this paper,Anshan city is considered as the research region,and light,medium-sized,heavy passenger cars,and light and heavy trucks are taken as research objects.A neural network model is established to predict the number of motor vehicles in Anshan city from 2018 to 2022.For each type of the motor vehicles,its NOx emission factor is calculated using MOVES2014 b(County Data Manager),and its NOx annual emission in the five years is determined.The results show that the annual NO_xemission keeps growing from 2018 to 2022,accounting for 5.9%,7.0%,8.0%,8.7%,and 10.6%of the NOx atmospheric environmental bearing capacity of Anshan city,respectively.The NO_xsharing rates of the mobile sources are 13.12%,15.39%,17.13%,18.29%and 21.54%respectively.However,the average NOx emission sharing rate of the mobile sources is 36%for the provincial capital cities in Northeast China.It is concluded that the level of NOxemissions is relatively low in Anshan city.At this level,the number of vehicles is expected to be able to reach 1.17 million in Anshan city.Therefore,there is still growth space with the premise that the existing emissions remain stable.
作者
钟跃峰
聂振皓
熊焱
金文杰
ZHONG Yuefeng;NIE Zhenhao;XIONG Yan;JIN Wenjie(School of Chemical Engineering,University of Science and Technology Liaoning,Anshan 114051,China;Anshan Ecological Environmental Protection Bureau,Anshan 114051,China;School of Science,University of Science and Technology Liaoning,Anshan 114051,China)
出处
《辽宁科技大学学报》
CAS
2020年第6期419-425,共7页
Journal of University of Science and Technology Liaoning
基金
国家自然科学基金(22078142)。
关键词
机动车排放
排放因子
NOx
分担率
神经网络
motor vehicle exhaust
emission factor
NOx
sharing rate
neural network
