摘要
全球气候异常影响农业生产,全球玉米库存下降;粮食结构调整,影响玉米生产;畜牧业逐步恢复,拉动玉米需求增长;临时收储玉米经多轮拍卖,库存下降较快;疫情导致消毒酒精需求爆发式增长,加速玉米消耗。这些因素使以玉米为代表的生物燃料乙醇生产原料价格持续上涨,导致生物燃料乙醇价格暴涨、资源趋紧,给乙醇汽油推广带来巨大挑战。当前,中国的生物燃料乙醇生产成本增加,推动价格快速上涨;生物燃料乙醇价格逐步向市场化转变;非粮生物燃料乙醇市场份额持续下降。新形势下,中国乙醇汽油推广应结合中国国情,生物燃料乙醇行业应服从国家和行业的长远发展,建立乙醇汽油推广动态调整机制,加大政策扶持力度,加快研究纤维素乙醇技术,在助力粮食市场的同时,走持续可发展的乙醇汽油推广道路。
Global climate anomalies,global corn stocks decline,and grain structure adjustment,affected corn production,animal husbandry gradually recovered and therefore drove the growth of corn demand,temporary purchase and storage of corn after several rounds of auction resulted in rapid inventory decline,the explosion in demand for disinfecting alcohol by the pandemic,accelerated corn consumption,making the raw material price of biofuel ethanol production represented by corn continue to rise,leading to the soaring price of biofuel ethanol and the tightening of resources,and also bringing great challenges to the promotion of ethanol gasoline.The currently increasing production cost of biofuel ethanol in China drives the rapid price rise,the price of biofuel ethanol is gradually changing to market;the market share of non-grain biofuels ethanol continues to decline.Under the new situation,ethanol gasoline promotion should be combined with China’s national current conditions,biofuel ethanol industry should obey the long-term development of the country and the industry,establish the promotion mechanism of dynamic adjustment of ethanol gasoline,increase policy support,speed up the research of cellulose ethanol technology,take the sustainable development of ethanol gasoline promotion road while the support of grain market.
作者
陈俊任
CHEN Junren(PetroChina Marketing Company)
出处
《国际石油经济》
2020年第12期59-62,共4页
International Petroleum Economics
