摘要
The return level of the joint distribution of flood levels and flood peak discharges was analyzed by Archimedean Gumbel-Hougaard copula and Kendall distribution functions.Using the annual maximum level(H)and discharge(Q)of flood peak at Boluo Hydrologic Station in the Dongjiang River in last 56 years,the"OR"return period,"AND"return period and Kendall return period of their joint distribution and the most likely design flood value were calculated.The main conclusions of this study can be summarized as follows:the Kendall return period can more accurately reflect the risk rate of the combination of flood elements,relative to"OR"return period and"AND"return period.The design value of univariate flood element based on the current specification can meet the design standard.While the design value calculated according to"OR"return period was on the high side,and the design value calculated by the"AND"return period was on low side.Based on the principle of maximum probability,the calculated design value of Kendall return period under the different combinations of flood peak discharge and water level can provide new options for flood control project safety and risk management.
基金
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41371498)
Young Talents Innovation Project of Guangdong Education Department(6020210026K)
Postdoctoral Funding Program(6020271006K)
Innovation Project of Shenzhen Polychenic in 2019(cxgc2019c0005).
