摘要
为更好地实现金融开放背景下的经济稳定目标,需要协调制度层面对冲外生冲击的能力与特定制度安排下货币政策调控效力。本文利用两国DSGE模型,从资本账户开放和汇率市场化两个维度考察金融开放、货币政策效力和经济稳定的联系。研究发现,金融开放影响经济稳定存在双重路径。一是作用于外生冲击传导,直接影响经济稳定。资本账户开放与汇率市场化均能减弱技术冲击,但应对国外货币政策冲击,资本账户开放效果不佳。二是改变货币政策效力,间接影响经济稳定。汇率市场化能够提升货币政策调控效力,而资本账户开放效果则相反。因此,汇率市场化先行的金融开放策略能够在直接缓解外生冲击的基础上提升货币政策效力,有利于增强开放背景下的货币政策治理能力。
In order to achieve the goal of economic stability in the context of financial openness, it is necessary to coordinate the ability of institutional hedge against exogenous shocks and the effectiveness of monetary policy countercyclical regulation under specific institutional arrangements.On the one hand, financial openness will affect the transmission and diffusion of heterogeneous exogenous shocks. On the other hand, financial openness will also affect the effectiveness of monetary policy. By constructing a two-country DSGE model, this paper examines the relationship between financial openness, monetary policy effectiveness and economic stability from two dimensions of capital account openness and exchange rate liberalization. The results show that financial openness affects economic stability through two channels. Firstly,it affects exogenous shock conduction, which directly affects economic stability. Both capital account openness and exchange rate liberalization can hedge against technological shock, but under impact of foreign monetary policy, capital account openness is not effective.Secondly,it affects effectiveness of monetary policy, which indirectly affects economic stability. Exchange rate liberalization can enhance the effectiveness and independence of monetary policy, while capital account openness has opposite effect. Therefore, the financial opening process should be priority of exchange rate liberalization. This can not only give play to the advantages of exchange rate liberalization to directly hedge technological shocks, but also prevent the risk of foreign monetary policy shocks from being amplified due to the excessively rapid opening of the capital account. At the same time, it can also help to improve the effectiveness of China's monetary policy and maximize the macroeconomic stability under the background of opening up.
作者
于春海
张斌
Yu Chunhai;Zhang Bin(School of Economics,Renmin University of China)
出处
《国际金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第11期24-34,共11页
Studies of International Finance
基金
教育部重大专项课题“党的创新理论引领贯彻理论经济学知识体系研究”(19JZDZ002)
中国人民大学2019年度拔尖创新人才培育资助计划成果资助。
关键词
资本账户开放
汇率市场化
货币政策调控效力
经济稳定
Capital Account Openness
Exchange Rate Liberalization
Monetary Policy Effectiveness
Economic Stability
