摘要
开展县域生态风险评价,是客观认知区域景观生态风险变化规律、诊断土地景观生态问题的重要途径,可为县域科学管理和保护生态环境提供科学依据。文章以江西省婺源县为研究区域,基于2005年、2010年及2015年三期景观类型数据,构建景观生态风险指数,运用空间分析等方法,对婺源县景观生态风险及其时空演变特征、地形梯度特征进行分析。进一步结合元胞自动机-马尔科夫(CA-Markov)模型,对婺源县2025年景观格局及其生态风险进行预测分析。结果表明:研究期内,婺源县以中度景观生态风险和较低景观生态风险为主,整体上形成了南高北低的景观生态风险格局。2005年、2010年和2015年,婺源县景观生态风险Moran’s I指数分别为0.426421、0.380273和0.37414,表现为正的空间相关性,且相关性在逐年减弱。研究期内,婺源县整体景观生态风险呈现由南向北迁移的趋势。随着地形高程和坡度的增大,婺源县景观生态风险呈现下降的趋势。综合分析,人类活动的干扰是影响婺源县景观生态风险变化和迁移的主导因素,在未来的发展过程中,应加强保护管理,注重开发建设活动的有序性和集约性。文章考虑了不同评价单元尺度对景观破碎化的影响,根据婺源县实地情况,选择了3km×3km的格网作为评价单元,同时对边缘地区的评价单元进行了优化处理,用景观面积代替评价单元面积,避免了评价结果异常值的出现。
County ecological risk assessment is an important way to objectively understand the change rules of regional landscape ecological risk and diagnose the ecological problems of land landscape,which can provide scientific basis for scientific management and protection of ecological environment at county level.Taking Wuyuan County as research region,based on the landscape type data of 2005,2010 and 2015,the landscape ecological risk index was constructed,and the spatial analysis method was used to analyze the landscape ecological risk and its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics in Wuyuan County.Based on CA-Markov model,the landscape pattern and ecological risk of Wuyuan County in 2025 were predicted and analyzed.The results showed that Wuyuan county was dominated by moderate landscape ecological risks and low landscape ecological risks during the study period,forming a landscape ecological risk pattern of high in the south and low in the north.In 2005,2010 and 2015,Moran’s I index of landscape ecological risks in Wuyuan County were 0.426421,0.380273 and 0.37414 respectively,showing positive spatial correlation,and the correlation was decreasing year by year.During the study period,the overall landscape ecological risks in Wuyuan County tended to migrate to the north.Human disturbance activities lead to rapid changes in landscape patterns and are the leading factors affecting changes and migration of landscape ecological risks.In the future development process,protection and management should be strengthened,and the orderly and intensive development and construction should be emphasized.In this study,the impact of different evaluation unit scales on landscape fragmentation was considered.According to the actual situation of Wuyuan County,a 3 km×3 km grid was selected as the evaluation unit.Meanwhile,the evaluation unit in marginal areas was optimized and replaced by landscape area to avoid the appearance of the evaluation result outliers.
作者
何庆港
蔡海生
张学玲
张婷
陈艺
王立国
曾珩
He Qinggang;Cai Haisheng;Zhang Xueling;Zhang Ting;Chen Yi;Wang Liguo;Zeng Heng(Key Laboratory of Po-yang Lake Watershed Agricultural Resources and Ecology of Jiangxi Province/Development Research Center of Selenium-rich Agricultural Industry,Jiangxi Agricultural University,Nanchang 330045;Jiangxi Tourism and Commerce Vocational College,Nanchang 330100;Land Consolidation and Rehabilitation Center,Department of Natural Resources of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330002)
出处
《林业经济》
北大核心
2020年第8期50-63,共14页
Forestry Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金“鄱阳湖流域土地集约利用与生态安全耦合发展及其综合响应机制研究”(编号:31660140)
国家自然科学基金“农村集体建设用地市场交易成本测算及效率改进的多情景制度动态模拟分析”(编号:72004084)
江西省土地开发整理中心项目“江西省国土空间规划生态修复专题研究”(编号:9131207800)。
