摘要
我国社会老龄化特征日益凸显,对于仍然处于发展中国家状态的我国而言,未富先老这一话题格外沉重。在退休人口规模日益庞大、新生人口大幅降低的情况下,老年抚养比急速上涨,我国养老金事业面临着收支不均衡的严峻挑战,公共养老金事业也面临着巨大压力。为应对上述困境,我国在2016年出台了“全面二孩”政策。然而,全面二孩政策对于我国公共养老金管理的具体效果有待研究。因此,文章首先考虑了双向利他因素:赠与(赡养)和遗产,并由此得到子对父的代际净转移率,用以衡量家庭养老情形。其次在居民个人部门引入养育子女成本因素,由此建立了双向利他和内生增长的世代交叠模型,对该模型进行平稳增长路径分析,可以得到出生率与代际净转移率、人均有效产出、企业缴费率的关系。在此基础上求出了全面二孩政策下企业缴费率的最优选择区间,并基于理论层面研究得出:全面二孩政策鼓励了代际净转移,有助于缓解我国养老的压力。此外,文章对个人与中央计划者最优效用下的均衡解答分析后发现:社会最优配置的公共养老金对居民家庭养老支持有着更高的需求。最后,对如何缓解公共养老金压力提出了相关建议以及进一步展望。
The characteristics of China’s aging society have become increasingly prominent.For China,which is still and will continue to be a developing country for a period of time,the topic of getting old before getting rich is particularly heavy.With the growing size of the retired population and the sharp decline in the new population,the old-age dependency ratio is rising rapidly.Therefore,China’s pension system is facing severe challenges from uneven income and expenditure,and the public pension system is also facing tremendous pressure.In response to the above-mentioned dilemma,China introduced a“comprehensive twochild”policy in 2016.However,the specific effect of the comprehensive two-child policy on China’s public pension management remains to be studied.Therefore,in the framework of overlapping generation model with endogenous growth and two-way altruism,under the assumption of complete competition market,labor market clearing and people freely choosing birth rate under the restriction of the comprehensive two-child policy,this paper adopts the endogenous growth model of capital externality,and considers the balance between the pension system with unified account and the endowment insurance system linked with birth rate under the pay.It also considers the relationship between the optimal enterprise contribution rate and the birth rate,maintenance rate,output growth rate and other variables,and obtains the steady-state solutions of the variables such as saving rate,child rearing cost rate,maintenance rate,inheritance rate,consumption rate during working period and the functional relationship between the output growth rate and the birth rate under the stable state.Through the analysis of the steady growth path,we can get the relationship between the birth rate and the net intergenerational transfer rate,per capita effective output and enterprise contribution rate.On this basis,we find out the optimal choice range of enterprise payment rate under the comprehensive two-child policy;based on the theoretical l
作者
姚海祥
洪雅芳
邓超
张琰
Yao Haixiang;Hong Yafang;Deng Chao;Zhang Yan(School of Finance,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,China;Southern China Institute of Fortune Management Research,Guangzhou 510006,China)
出处
《财经研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第12期94-108,共15页
Journal of Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71871071,72071051,71471045,11801099,12001119)
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(71721001)
广东省自然科学重点项目(2018B030311004)
广东省自然科学基金项目(2017A030313399)
广东省普通高校创新团队项目(2016WCXTD012)。
关键词
全面二孩政策
养老保险金
代际净转移
内生增长
comprehensive two-child policy
public pensions
net intergenerational transfer
endogenous growth
