摘要
根据1989-2018年共30a间珠江三角洲地区的灾次比、热带气旋登陆等级以及多年平均降雨量,构建热带气旋灾害危险性评估指标体系,评估珠江三角洲地区热带气旋灾害的危险性,研究发现其空间格局呈现从东南沿海向内陆递减的"T"字型格局;从社会、经济、生态、组织4个层面韧性选取22个指标构建城市韧性评估指标体系,评估珠江三角洲地区的城市韧性,研究发现其空间格局呈现明显的高韧性"中心极化"特征。在此基础上,构建"城市韧性提升紧迫度=危险性指数/城市韧性指数"的测度方法,评估珠江三角洲地区城市韧性提升紧迫度。综合研究表明,珠江三角洲38.24%的地区属于城市韧性提升高紧迫度及较高紧迫度地区,空间上呈现"3组团"的格局,通过分析影响城市韧性的具体指标因子,发现导致城市韧性提升高紧迫度的因素主要包括发展落后、生态条件不善、组织保障不足3个方面,进而有针对性的提出城市韧性提升策略。
According to the disaster ratio,tropical cyclone landing grade and average annual rainfall in the Pearl River Delta region from 1989 to 2018,a tropical cyclone disaster risk assessment index system is constructed to assess the risk of tropical cyclone disasters in various regions of the Pearl River Delta.The spatial pattern presents a"T"-shaped pattern that decreases from the southeast coast to the inland;22 specific indicators are selected from four levels of social resilience,economic resilience,ecological resilience,and organizational resilience to construct an urban resilience assessment index system to evaluate various regions of the Pearl River Delta.The urban resilience found that its spatial pattern exhibits a distinctly high toughness"central polarization".On this basis,the measurement method of"urgency of urban resilience improvement=risk index/city resilience index"is constructed to assess the urgency of resilience improvement in various regions of the Pearl River Delta.Studies have shown that 38.24%of the Pearl River Delta region is a region with high urgency in urban resilience,and presents a"three-group regime"in space.By analyzing specific indicators that affect urban resilience,it is found that the factors that lead to the high urgency of resilience increase include three aspects:backward development,poor ecological conditions,and insufficient organizational guarantees,and then targeted urban resilience promotion strategies.
作者
杜金莹
唐晓春
徐建刚
DU Jinying;TANG Xiaochun;XU Jiangang(School of Architecture and Urban Planning of Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;College of Geography and Tourism,Guangdong University of Finance and Economics,Guangzhou 510320,China)
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第5期88-98,共11页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51778278,51278239)。
