摘要
政府相关部门对“全面二孩”政策实施效果的评价相对乐观但依据有所不足;学术界从宏观层面的分析大部分认为政策近期效果明显,但所依据的评价指标存在同样的局限。从微观层面进行的二孩生育意愿调查结果则因方法缺陷而可靠性不足。本文通过估算、整理和分析近四年全国二胎出生人口信息,提供了政策实施效果明显的具体证据。要进一步完善政策效果评价,需要认识政策目标与政策效果评价之间的关系,特别是需要解决相关统计数据的可得性问题。
Though both the government authorities and academia got positive results on the effect of“Universal Two-Child”policy implementation,their conclusions were not convincing.And the results of the micro-level surveys are not reliable due to their methodological flaws.This paper provides evidences for the marked effect of the policy by analyzing the demographics of the“Second Baby”in the last four years.It also points out that we need to clarify the relationship between the objectives and effect evaluation of the policy,especially the availability of relevant statistical data.
出处
《东南大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2020年第5期103-111,156,共10页
Journal of Southeast University(Philosophy and Social Science)
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国生育政策调整带来的新社会问题研究”(14ZDB150)阶段性成果。
