摘要
秦淮河流域大部分区域位于南京市,随着城镇化快速发展,不透水面大幅增加,会导致区域洪水风险增加。但是随着经济能力的快速发展,区域排涝能力大幅增强,会在一定程度上降低洪水风险。以溧水河为例,通过MIKE11和MIKE21模型耦合模拟秦淮河流域洪水过程和淹没状态,分析下垫面和排涝能力变化对洪水风险的影响。结果表明:50年一遇设计暴雨情况下,排涝能力不变时,秦淮河流域1995—2005年下垫面变化淹没面积增加1.65%,2005—2015年下垫面变化会导致淹没面积增加2.08%。当排涝能力同样变化时,1995—2005年变化情景下,淹没面积减少4.56%,2005—2015年变化情景下,淹没面积减少8.43%。排涝能力变化对区域洪水淹没影响大于下垫面变化。
Most areas of Qinhuai River Basin are located in Nanjing City.With the rapid development of urbanization,impermeable water surface increases greatly,which will lead to the increase of regional flood risk.However,with the rapid development of economic capacity,the regional waterlogging capacity is greatly enhanced,which will reduce the flood risk to a certain extent.Taking Lishui River as an example,the flood process and inundation state of Qinhuai River basin were simulated by MIKE 11 and MIKE21 models to analyze the impact of changes in underlying surface and drainage capacity on flood risk.The results showed that,under the design rainstorm once in 50 years,when the drainage capacity remained unchanged,the submerged area of the Qinhuai River basin would increase by 1.65%from 1995 to 2005,and increase by 2.08%from 2005 to 2015.When the drainage capacity changed similarly,the flooded area decreased by 4.56%under the changing scenarios from 1995 to 2005,and decreased by 8.43%under the changing scenarios from 2005 to 2015.Therefore,the influence of drainage capacity on regional flooding was greater than that of underlying surface.
作者
杨红卫
陈璇
高斌
YANG Hongwei;CHEN Xuan;GAO Bin(Nanjing Water Planning and Designing Institute Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210022,China;Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China)
出处
《江苏水利》
2020年第10期50-57,共8页
Jiangsu Water Resources
基金
江苏省水利科技项目(2017014)。
关键词
秦淮河
下垫面
排涝动力
洪涝
Qinhuai River
underlying surface
drainage power
flood
