摘要
金融全球化背景下海外金融冲击对我国经济的影响逐步凸显,本文将海外金融冲击具象化为海外信贷冲击与汇率冲击,在开放DSGE模型中系统地研究海外金融冲击的内生传染机制:海外信贷冲击内生传染的核心渠道是通过资产价格影响国内流动性水平、制约国内企业与居民的借贷;汇率冲击的内生传染机制在于资产价格下降与人民币贬值间的内生加速。海外金融冲击传染的内生性说明其对国内经济系统的影响一方面与冲击大小有关,更重要的则取决于海外金融冲击引致的国内经济系统之内在反应。因此,面对海外金融冲击我们不仅需被动监测,更要主动防范,提升金融市场抵御风险的能力,着力点包括资本账户宏观审慎监管、避免汇率大幅波动、维持国内资产价格稳定等。
With the irreversible trend of financial globalization,the impact of overseas financial shocks on economic system is highlighting gradually.A DSGE framework embedded with foreign credit constraint is built to analyze the endogenous contagion mechanism of overseas financial shocks.The core channel of oversea credit shock contagion is asset prices,which can trigger the domestic credit constraint,affect the domestic liquidity and credit.In addition,key endogenous contagion of exchange rate shock is the mutual interaction mechanism between exchange rate and asset prices.Faced with endogenous(but not exogenous)contagion mechanism of overseas financial shocks,we should not only depend on the passive risk monitoring,but also enhance the financial stability actively,while focusing on capital account macro-prudential regulation,stabilization of domestic asset prices and avoiding huge exchange rate fluctuations.
作者
刘一楠
钟其辰
宋晓玲
Liu Yinan;Zhong Qichen;Song Xiaoling
出处
《财经科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第9期1-13,共13页
Finance & Economics
