摘要
高债务与高杠杆成为目前中国经济的突出矛盾,去杠杆是化解金融风险、保证经济稳定的必由之路,但短期内去杠杆意味着信贷市场的突然冲击,可能影响短期经济增长。构建一个包含信贷抵押约束的DSGE模型,研究供给侧改革背景下突然紧缩的去杠杆过程可能导致的"债务—通缩"风险。结果表明,突然信贷收缩式的去杠杆可能会使社会融资规模突然收紧,进而触发资产价格下跌与信贷抵押约束收紧,不仅无法缓解高杠杆可能导致的系统性金融风险,甚至将加速风险暴露,通过抵押品效应和名义"债务—通缩"效应两种渠道触发"债务—通缩"风险。财政政策与货币政策协调可提升政策可持续性,有助于化解突然收缩信贷导致的"债务—通缩"风险。
High levels of debt and leverage have become a prominent contradiction in China＇s current economy. Deleveraging is necessary to resolve the financial crisis and guarantee economic stability. In the short-term however, deleveraging implies sudden shocks to credit markets,which may influence short-term economic growth. By establishing a DSGE model,which includes credit collateral constraints, this study has examined potential ＂debt- deflation＂ risks resulting from a sudden deleveraging process in the context of supply -side reforms. The results of this study show that deleveraging through a sudden tightening of credit may cause a sudden contraction in the scale of social financing, which could lead to falling asset prices and a tightening of credit collat- eral constraints. This would not only fail to ease the potential systemic financial risks resulting from high degrees of leverage, but could also accelerate risk exposure, and generate ＂debt-defla- tion＂ risks through both the collateral effect channel and the nominal ＂debt- deflation＂ effect channel. The coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy can improve policy sustainability and help to resolve ＂debt-deflation＂ risks caused by the sudden tightening of credit.
作者
刘一楠
宋晓玲
Liu Yinan;Song Xiaoling(School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 457001,China;Business School,Beijing Language and Culture University,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《金融经济学研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期43-56,共14页
Financial Economics Research
基金
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAL07B03)
关键词
去杠杆
信贷抵押约束
“债务-通缩”风险
deleveraging
credit collateral constraints
＂debt - deflation＂ risk
