摘要
承载力的研究在生态学中有着较长的历史,当前在生态文明建设和国家空间规划的背景下又成为研究的热点。国土空间规划中的"双评价""、三线一单"编制和生态红线划定均要求对承载力进行评价。承载力的概念和研究方法多样,当前还未有统一的范式或指标体系。本文针对开发强度大、生态环境问题突出的环渤海地区,尝试以指标体系法为基础,从综合考虑社会-经济-生态因素且重点考虑各子系统间关联系的角度,对此区域综合承载力现状进行了评价。从支持力和压力两方面建立分层多级综合评价指标体系,以地级市为单元对研究区2012~2016年综合承载力进行量化评估并加以分析;再以当前技术水平为条件,设定综合承载力理想状态,探索各市提升综合承载力的途径,并运用系统动力学理论和方法,应用Vensim软件对未来10年环渤海地区综合承载力进行了预测。研究结果表明:环渤海区域13个地级市和天津市,近5年区域综合承载力均有所提升,但地区间差异较大,且距理想状态均有一定差距。天津市综合承载力初始水平较高且增速较快,区域综合承载力值达到0.60,最接近理想状态值的0.713;河北省各市水平最低,且增长速度均较缓慢,其区域综合承载力值最高的也仅为0.40;山东省各市综合承载力整体呈缓慢上升趋势,区域综合承载力值略高于河北,达到0.50;辽宁省各市综合承载力水平参差不齐,综合承载力指数在0.35-0.50之间,个别城市甚至出现回落现象,而制约综合承载力提高的主要因素是环境压力和经济发展水平。对环渤海地区未来10年综合承载力预测结果表明,该地区综合承载力缓慢提升;加大科技投入与加强对自然生态系统的保护是提升环渤海区域未来综合承载力的重要手段。本研究结果可为区域综合承载力研究提供案例和方法上的参考,也可为环渤海地区的综合�
There was a long research on carrying capacity in Ecology,which becomes a hot topic under the background of ecological civilization construction and national space planning in recent years.The concept and research methods of carrying capacity are diverse,and there is no unified paradigm or indicator system at present.This paper evaluated the regional comprehensive carrying capacity(CCC)considering socio-economy-ecology conditions around the Bohai region with high development intensity and prominent ecological environment problems.A hierarchical and multi-level comprehensive evaluation index system was established from the aspects of support force and pressure.The CCC in each city around the Bohai region from 2012 to 2016 was quantitatively evaluated and analyzed.Meanwhile,the ideal CCC in China was built considering the current technical conditions and the system dynamics theory by using the Vensim software.The results showed that the regional CCC in the 13 cities around the Bohai region and Tianjin was improved in the past 5 years.However,the CCC varied greatly and there was a certain distance from the ideal value.The initial CCC in Tianjin was relatively high and its growth rate was relatively fast and reached 0.60,which was the closest to the ideal value of 0.713.The CCC in the cities of Hebei Province was the lowest,and its growth rate was relatively slow.The mean CCC was only about 0.40.The CCC in all the cities of Shandong Province rose slowly and was slightly higher than that in Hebei Province,where the growth rate reached about 0.50.In all cities of Liaoning Province,the CCC varied greatly from 0.35 to 0.50.The main factors restricting the improvement of CCC were environmental pressure and economic development.The CCC value in each city around the Bohai region were predicted to be slowly increased from 2017 to 2027.The results demonstrated that strengthening the investment in science and technology and the protection of natural ecosystem is an important means to improve the CCC around the Bohai region in
作者
曲修齐
刘淼
李春林
尹红岩
常禹
胡远满
QU Xiu-qi;LIU Miao;LI Chun-lin;YIN Hong-yan;CHANG Yu;HU Yuan-man(Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management/Shenyang Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《土壤通报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期552-560,共9页
Chinese Journal of Soil Science
基金
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0505704)
自然科学基金(41671184,41871192,41671185)项目资助。
关键词
综合承载力
环渤海地区
综合评价
系统动力学
Comprehensive carrying capacity
System dynamics
Around the Bohai region
