摘要
论文构建了闽江口湿地生态—经济—社会系统耦合协同发展评价指标体系,引入复合系统耦合度模型和协同有序度模型,对2010-2017年闽江口区域的耦合度、协同有序度进行量化研究,并基于灰色GM(1,1)模型对未来四年闽江口区域协同发展状态做出预测。结果表明:经济与社会系统间存在着密切相关性;生态系统与经济、社会系统间的耦合度呈线性上升趋势,向良性耦合状态发展;随着闽江口区域经济、社会系统持续发展,生态系统呈先降后升的U型演化趋势,复合系统从非协同发展过渡为低协同发展;如果缺乏具有协同效应的巨涨落机制促进复合系统的跃迁,未来四年内闽江口区域将继续处于发展非协同或低协同状态。
The paper constructs an evaluation index system for the coupling synergetic development of the ecological-economic-social system of Minjiang Estuary Wetland. According to the coupling degree evaluation model and synergetic degree evaluation model, it analyses the status of the Minjiang Estuary Wetland region from 2010 to 2017 and predicts the status in the next four years by using the gray GM(1, 1) model. The results show that the coupling degree between the ecosystem and the economic system, the social system has gradually increased, and it has developed to a benign coupling state, where is always a close correlation between the economic and social systems;the economic and social systems of the Minjiang Estuary region develop continuously, while the wetland ecosystem has taken the lead the U-shaped development trend, the development of the composite system has changed from a non-synergistic state to a low-synergistic state;if there is no huge fluctuation synergetic mechanism to promote the transition of the composite system, the Minjiang Estuary region will continue to be in non or low synergistic state in the next four years.
作者
丁依婷
DING Yi-ting(College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences,Ocean University of China,Shandong Qingdao,266100,China)
出处
《中国渔业经济》
2020年第4期55-64,共10页
Chinese Fisheries Economics
关键词
闽江口湿地
生态—经济—社会系统
协同发展
Minjiang Estuary Wetland
ecological-economic-social system
synergetic development
