摘要
全球价值链分工和区域贸易自由化的发展对有效保护率的测度提出了新的挑战.基于全球多区域投入产出框架,通过构建新的有效保护率测度方法,整理双边产业关税数据库,揭示了中国关税有效保护率的新发展趋势,并就中美贸易摩擦及其可能的应对情景进行了模拟分析.研究表明:2000年~2014年,中国的总体有效保护率从22.25%下降至12.56%,中国国内生产者面临的国际竞争正日益增强.产业的有效保护率水平与产业增加值占GDP比重变化呈正相关关系,关税的资源配置效应明显.但有效保护率的产业间差异呈缩小趋势,借助关税政策引导产业间资源配置的政策空间在缩窄.中美贸易摩擦会提升中国化学原料及其制品业的有效保护率,为供给侧改革带来不利影响,同时也会降低具有劳动密集型特征的纺织品、服装和皮革制品业的有效保护率,从而对就业造成冲击.不论中国加入CPTPP还是RECP,均可以一定程度上平抑中美贸易摩擦在一些产业引起的有效保护率变化,有助于缓解中美贸易摩擦的负面影响.
The development of global value chains and regional trade liberalization poses new challenges to the measurement of effective protection rate( EPR).This paper constructs a new EPR measurement method in the Global Multi-regional Input-output Model,develops a Bilateral Industry Tariff Database to reveal the latest trends in China’s EPR,and conducts a simulation analysis on Sino-US trade frictions and its possible future scenarios.The results show that from 2000 to 2014,China’s overall EPR fell from 22.25% to 12.56%,and that the producers in China are increasingly facing a more competitive situation.Industrial EPR is positively correlated with the change of the ratio of industrial value added to GDP,so the resource allocation effect of tariff is obvious.However,the inter-industry differences in EPR are shrinking,meaning that the policy space for tariff measures in allocating resource is narrowing.The Sino-US trade frictions will increase the EPR of the chemical raw materials,an industry contains many backward production capacity,but will have adverse effects on supply-side reforms.The friction will also reduce the EPR of some labor-intensive industries,such as textile,apparel and leather products industries,and shock employment.Both CPTPP and RECP can help alleviate the change of EPR caused by Sino-US trade frictions in some industries,and help alleviate the negative impact of Sino-US trade frictions.
作者
谢锐
陈湘杰
陈黎明
倪红福
XIE Rui;CHEN Xiang-jie;CHEN Li-ming;NI Hong-fu(School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410079,China;School of Finance and Statistics,Hunan University,Changsha 410079,China;Institute of Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100836,China)
出处
《管理科学学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第7期76-98,共23页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71673083)
国家社科基金重大资助项目(16ZDA038).
关键词
有效保护率
全球价值链分工
区域贸易自由化
中美贸易摩擦
effective protection rate
global value chains
regional trade liberalization
Sino-US trade frictions
